Page 35 - UKRRptMay19

corporate sector amounted to $393mn vs the outflow of $89mn in January. In addition, the foreign currency inflow under the trade credits amounted to $504mn vs the outflow of $730mn in January.
In February, the balance of payments deficit enlarged to $248mn (from $68 mln in January). In January-February, the balance of payments deficit amounted to $316mn (vs a deficit of $196 mln in January-February).
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a note on April 1 that the current account switched to a deficit as soon as the growth of goods imports restored itself amid an expected renewal of mineral products imports (apparently, natural gas).
"Goods exports continue to be driven by surging agricultural exports after a record-high grain harvest. Meanwhile, other important export items like ferrous metals and machinery are not likely to demonstrate a confident growth trend in the nearest future," she added.
Concorde expects the current account deficit to enlarge to $5.6bn in 2019 vs $4.5bn in 2018) due to the growing trade deficit.
Ukraine’s merchandise trade balance reached a $777mn deficit in February, switching from a surplus of $17mn in January, the nation's state statistics service Ukrstat said in its preliminary report on April 15.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade balance showed a $855mn deficit (a 76.6% month-on-month growth from a $484mn deficit in January) amid a 4.1% m/m drop in adjusted exports and 4.0% m/m growth in adjusted imports.
In January-February, the trade deficit reached $760mn, or a 4.4% year-on-year increase. In the first two months of 2019, goods exports advanced 7.9% y/y, slightly outpacing imports, which improved 7.6% y/y.
The agricultural sector remained the major contributor to export growth. In particular, grain exports surged 62.1% y/y and finished food product exports picked up 17% y/y. At the same time, exports of ferrous metals and machinery declined 3% y/y and 8.4% y/y, respectively.
Road vehicle and aircraft imports surged 77.1% y/y, being a major contributor to rising imports overall. In addition, imports of machinery increased 9.0% y/y.
Exports to the EU grew 4% y/y in January-February, while EU imports jumped 10.2% y/y. The share of the EU in Ukraine’s exports and imports amounted to 43.4% and 41.6%, respectively
Evgeniya Akhtyrko at Kyiv-based brokerage Concorde Capital wrote in a research note on April 16 that provisional customs statistics released this month promise the March trade deficit plunge to $600mn amid some month-to- month increase in exports and decline in imports.
Concorde expects the 2019 goods trade deficit (according to Ukrstat methodology) will swell to $11.5bn (from $9.8bn in 2018), with import growth outpacing export increases.
Ukraine is the biggest recipient of remittances after it received a record $14bn of cash transfers sent home by migrant workers in 2018, the World Bank said on April 9.
35 UKRAINE Country Report May 2019 www.intellinews.com