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54 Opinion INTERVIEW:
Russia’s game in Syria
Ben Aris in Rhodes
The military phase of the war in Syria is coming to an end, with the rebels and terrorists left in their last stronghold in the northern town of Idlib. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has already said that the Russian forces will pull out (although they are still there) but the situation remains fraught. bne IntelliNews editor-in-chief Ben Aris sat down with Israel’s former prime minister Ehud Olmert at this year's Rhodes Forum "Dilaogue of the Civilisations". Olmert has negotiated with Putin many times and focusses
on Russia’s growing activity in the region, to discuss the conflict and what happens next.
Ben Aris: Clausewitz said “war is politics by other means,” but in the war in Syria there seems to be as much politics as war. There are several players in the field all with different goals and motivations. What is Israel’s interest in this conflict?
Ehud Olmert: The situation in Syria is complex and there have been problems for a long time, since 2011. It's a situation that has gone out of control. The emergence of Islamic State (IS) and the Caliphate and the confrontation with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has created a big mess.
This is an internal Syrian issue with possible ramifications outside. The question for Israel was if it should intervene?
We could easily have overthrown Assad at that time. But we decided that as long as it doesn't pose any immediate dangers to Israel we would refrain. And that was the case until the end of 2016.
With the growing penetration of Iran [into Syria] we became a lot more concerned, especially with the political instability inside Syria itself.
At the same time the fact that America weakened its commitment to the Middle East has opened up a big space for the Russians to increase their penetration.
Now we have reached a point where Assad seems to have regained his position in Syria and there is a military presence from Iran.
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Israel’s former prime minister Ehud Olmert negotiated with Russia's Vladimir Putin many times over the Syrian and Iranian questions.
We have an interest now. Iran, which is a very vocal and aggressive enemy of Israel, has military forces on our border. We don't trust them. We know how to deal with Syria easily. But Iran is a different story.
The Russians seem to have exploited this very much to the benefit of their dominance in the area by allowing the Iranians to come into Syria, but at the same time supervising their entry so as not to upset the balance.
“We could easily have overthrown Assad at that time”
The Israeli interest is to block any further expansion of Iran into Syria, but at the same time not to get into any confrontation with Russia, which we don't see as an enemy of Israel.
Russians are not hostile to Israel. The Russians are interested in protecting what they consider to be their interests.
We will never attack Russia obviously. We are not idiots. But we will attack those, even those the Russians protect, if they endanger the state of Israel.
BA: Israel has been in Syria for about a year and is specifically targeting Hezbollah, Iranians and those Syrians that offer assistance to either of them. But this confuses the picture as it introduces another military player into the game with a specific set of interests.
EO: What can we do? It’s complex – yes. But we can’t ignore it. Can we rely on the Americans? Are they present in this area? No, they are not. They seem to have given up their desire to
be the major player in this part of the world. It’s not a criticism. It's a fact.
BA: Doesn't that hugely change the political map of the region?