Page 55 - RusRPTMar20

surplus in 2020. Over the next three years, the budget surplus will increase from initial projections to 0.6% GDP in 2021 (from 0.5%) and to 0.3% GDP in 2022 (from 0.2%).
The government plans to offset the increase in social expenditures with a rise in non-oil and gas revenues. In particular, tax and customs payments should increase as the jump in social aid boosts real disposable incomes and kickstarts economic growth.
Federal revenues are projected to rise by RUB214bn in 2020, RUB645bn in 2021, and RUB755bn in 2022—nearly enough to compensate for the rise in federal social spending (by RUB353bn in 2020, RUB713bn in 2021, and RUB783bn in 2022).
Kommersant reports that the government will redistribute budgetary funds to make room for increased social spending, although details of the reallocation are not yet clear.
Any shortfall in budgetary funds will be covered by the government’s purchase of Sberbank, which will effectively release RUB1.3 trillion ($20.5bn) from the National Welfare Fund into the federal budget.
Seeing how the budget figures stack up, however, has led the Audit Chamber to ask “what’s the point?” Not buying the argument that the Sberbank’s sale simply serves to remove the central bank’s conflict of interest as both the regulator and controlling stakeholder of Sberbank, the federal budgetary watchdog wants to know what the money will go towards. This is as yet unclear, but it seems that the government wants to free up the funds to give added cushion to budget policy. Even as Russia’s policymakers plan to loosen the taps and ease fiscal policy, prudent macroeconomics remains top of mind.
55​ RUSSIA Country Report​ March 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com