Page 34 - GEORptFeb22

7.0 FX
Georgia - Foreign exchange rate
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
1Q21
2Q21
3Q21
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
2.520
2.617
2.832
2.991
3.155
3.552
3.998
4.008
3.680
Currency (units per USD) (average)
2.270
2.367
2.509
2.534
2.819
3.110
3.314
3.327
3.120
Fragile improvement in GDP and tourism data fuels Georgia’s currency
Georgia’s currency, the lari (GEL), placed under pressure over the past coronavirus-hit year due to the sudden plunge of forex inflows generated by tourism, is strengthening, apparently supported by good economic figures (+46% GDP in April, according to a flash estimate), particularly in the tourism sector.
The GEL has strengthened to 3.08 GEL to the USD in a run over three consecutive days to stabilise at around 3.15, a major improvement compared to the 3.45 values seen in May when the currency was losing further ground.
A report on tourism in May showed 104,700 visitors arrived in Georgia, marking a monthly record since the beginning of the pandemic.
The flow of visitors was 180% higher y/y, but the figure should be adjusted for the low base, as the country was under lockdown in May 2020.
Despite the relative recovery seen in tourism, its volume amounts to 85% less than was seen in the pre-pandemic period, looking at May 2019.
Also, it is not only that the impressive April GDP expansion (+19% versus April 2019) visibly overstates the state of the country’s economy, the recovery in tourism is still iffy and fragile compared to the pre-crisis basis. It is expected that the central bank will remain cautious at its June 23 monetary board meeting, when deciding whether to turn even more hawkish and push up the key rate from 9.5%.
The consumer price inflation rate in Georgia reached 7.7% y/y in May, at 0.5pp more than was seen in April and May and hitting the highest rate recorded in the past decade.
According to the tourism statistics, more than half of the visitors, some 52,688,
34 GEORGIA Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com