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banking literature, namely his theories of “the reasonable real return”, as well as on the data that remains unavailable on the central bank’s swap operations—so unavailable that in recent months it has even raised the eyebrows of the Financial Times.
Uysal, who has brought in spectacular monetary easing that is a fascinating, no doubt entirely coincidental (!) reflection of what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has specified with his demands for cheaper and cheaper money, calmly recycled his non-answers. Finally, boredom set in. Uysal clearly found receiving the swaps query from each questioner tiresome—and he very helpfully warned his audience that there was no need to create the perception that some unexplained things are occurring in the operations of Turkey’s monetary authority.
Perish the thought, incinerate that idle intellect! “Creating a perception” is a big crime in Turkey.
2.9​ ​World Bank now predicting 0% growth in Turkey in 2019 as exposed recovery continues, IMF at 0.2%
Leading indicators suggest that the Turkish economy continued its recovery from a recession triggered by the summer 2018 currency crisis in the third quarter of this year, according to the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Economic Update for autumn 2019, released on October 9.
“Manufacturing capacity utilization is nearing long-term averages, retail sales are on a moderately increasing trend, and real sector indicators (confidence, purchasing managers index) have recovered to their levels from a year ago. The economy is projected to record zero percent growth in 2019 before rebounding to 3 percent and 4 percent in 2020 and 2021, respectively.”
In its June economic update, the World Bank forecast that Turkey would experience an economic contraction of 1% in 2019.
The update also said that ​Turkey’s nominal credit growth is projected to accelerate, but cautioned that given asset quality concerns and debt overhang, economic recovery is unlikely to be fuelled by rapid credit expansion​.
It added: “​Turkey is expected to record a moderate current account deficit in 2019 as import demand begins to recover in the second half of the year. The general government fiscal deficit is expected to peak in 2019 with high countercyclical expenditure​.”
The report also observed that ​the country’s poverty was expected to increase in 2019, with the total number of poor forecast to rise from 7.35mn people in the country of 81mn in 2018 to 7.53mn in 2020​. “Although ​the government increased the minimum wage by 26 percent in January 2019, unemployed and informal workers will remain particularly exposed to falling into poverty​,” according to the World Bank. “​Stronger social safety nets may be required in the medium term to protect vulnerable households from recent income and price shocks​,” it added.
Projections for Turkey’s recovery remained exposed to the uncertain global outlook and geopolitical risks and, while the country’s gross international reserves have recovered to $100bn, this was still below the prudential level recommended by the IMF​, the report said.
“Reserves net of short-term drains (both pre-determined and contingent) have fallen sharply from $50 billion in January to $30 billion in July,” it added.
17​ TURKEY Country Report​ November 2019 ​ ​www.intellinews.com