Page 5 - AfrOil Week 22a 2020

AfrOil COMMENTARY AfrOil
It was signed about six months after Turk- ish-flagged drillships began offshore operations in areas off the coast of Cyprus. The areas in question fall entirely within the Turkish con- tinental shelf registered with the UN and lie within permit licences that the Turkish govern- ment had previously granted to TPAO.
Ankara’s ambition
Ankara has on every occasion vowed it wants to see energy as an incentive for political resolution on the island and peace in the wider Mediterra- nean Basin, not as a catalyst for further tensions.
Turkey is a guarantor nation for the TRNC and has consistently contested the Greek Cypriot administration’s unilateral drilling in the Eastern Mediterranean, asserting that the TRNC also has rights to the resources in the area.
Turkey’s third drillship, Kanuni, arrived in Taşucu, Mersin, a coastal city in the Mediterra- nean region of the country, on March 15.
Following the completion of renewal and upgrade studies, Kanuni, which joined the fleet at the beginning of 2020, is also projected to start operations in the Mediterranean Sea this year, according to Dönmez. The country plans to con- duct five drills in the Eastern Mediterranean this year, according to Turkey’s Annual Presidential Programme for 2020.
“Our two seismic and two drilling vessels will continue to work in the Eastern Mediterranean at full capacity. With [Fatih sailing] to the Black Sea, we [have] now bridged the most important gap,” the energy minister said.
In 1974, following a coup aimed at the annex- ation of Cyprus by Greece, Ankara was forced to intervene as a guarantor power on the island. In 1983, the TRNC was founded.
The decades since have seen several attempts to resolve the Cyprus dispute, all ending in fail- ure. The latest, held with the participation of the guarantor countries – Turkey, Greece and the UK – came to an end without any progress in 2017 in Switzerland.
Taking sides in Libya
Despite the persistence of disagreements over Cyprus, Turkey has not hesitated to involve itself in Libya’s struggles over territory. As evidenced
by its oil pact with Tripoli,
Ankara has shown itself to be an ally of
the internationally recognised Government of National Accord (GNA). This has pitted it against Moscow, which favours Eastern com- mander Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA).
A US general said on May 29 that the Penta- gon believes Russia’s introduction of warplanes into Libya may not tip the balance in the civil war between the GNA, which has been armed by Turkey, and the LN. Instead, he said, this move could help Moscow eventually secure a geostra- tegic stronghold in North Africa.
US Brigadier General Gregory Hadfield, deputy director of US Africa Command’s Intel- ligence Directorate, was quoted by Reuters as telling a small group of reporters that the Rus- sian aircrafts’ flight path originated in Russia and passed through Iran and Syria before reaching Libya. He was cited as saying that the aircraft had not been used yet but could add new capa- bility for the LNA, which has so far failed in its year-long effort to capture Tripoli, the seat of the internationally recognised GNA.
Hadfield cautioned that Moscow may not require an outright victory for Haftar to advance Russian interests. “Backing the LNA and back- ing Field Marshal Haftar, it really isn’t about win- ning the war, it’s about developing strongholds,” Hadfield said.
A big US concern would be if Moscow used such a location to stage missiles. “If Rus- sia secures a permanent position in Libya and, worse, deploys long-range missile systems, it will be a game changer for Europe, Nato and many Western nations,” he said.
The GNA is also backed by Turkey’s Gulf ally Qatar. Other countries behind the LNA include United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Egypt and France. ™
OPEC, allies to review output cuts
As the oil price rally stalls, OPEC+ considers extending production curbs by one to three months
WHAT:
Members of the OPEC+ group will meet to discuss an extension of production cuts
OPEC+ and its allies will decide as soon as this week whether or not to extend their historic output cuts. How long and to what extent global production curtailments remain in place will be crucial to sustaining crude’s rally after a record rebound last month.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries and its allies are expected to bring their next meeting forward to Thursday June 4 to discuss prolonging the present production curbs by one to three months, according to a delegate. The existing agreement calls for eas- ing cuts from July, a plan Russia would prefer to stick to.
Russian military personnel have delivered 14
MiG 29 and Su-24 fighter jets to the LNA’s Jufra
air base, according to the US military, despite
denials from the LNA and a Russian member
of parliament. The claimed move came after “ critical military assistance from Turkey, includ-
ing drone strikes, helped the GNA push back
Haftar’s forces.
Turkey has applied to Libya for an exploration permit in the Eastern Med and will begin work after the application process is completed
Week 22 03•June•2020 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m P5