Page 56 - bne_Magazine_September_2017

56 I New Europe in Numbers bne September 2017
Poland GDP y/y
Polish GDP growth races onwards in Q2
Polish GDP growth maintained its heady pace thus far in 2017 as it pushed to a seasonally-adjusted 4.4% y/y in the second quarter, a flash estimate released by the Central Statistical Office GUS on August 16 showed.
The result shows that the surprisingly rapid rate of growth recorded in the first three months of the year, when GDP gained 4%, persists. That is in line with similarly strong results across the Visegrad region as the region benefits from strong private demand, recovering investment, and robust activity in the Eurozone, the source of the majority of export demand.
Russia's inflation below CBR's 4% target and lowest in five years
Inflation fell to an all time low of 3.3% at the end of August, well below the Central Bank of Russia's (CBR) target level of 4% and making it almost certain that the central bank will resume its rate cutting at its meeting in September. Inflation is now at the lowest level since the bank switched to inflation targeting policy in late 2014.
Deflation was recorded in August for the first time in years. The period of accelerating inflation over the summer turned out to be short-lived. Monthly deflation has been registered only three times in Russia over the past 15 years, and always in August (2003, 2005 and 2011).
Romania’s GDP growth accelerates to 5.9% y/y in Q2
Romania’s GDP expressed in constant prices increased by 5.9% y/y, the statistics office reported in a flash estimate on August 16.
The growth rate accelerated from 5.7% y/y in first quarter and has been gather- ing momentum since the third quarter 2016 when GDP increased by 4.3% y/y. The seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.6% q/q in Q2, after the 1.8% q/q rise in Q1.
Industry’s contribution to growth improved reflecting stronger external demand thanks to an economic recovery in the EU. But the main growth driver is the services sector, where robust demand has lead to wide profit margins and larger turnover.
Ukraine industrial production plunged 2.6% y/y in July after two consecutive months of growth
Ukraine's industrial production plunged 2.6% y/y in July after two consecutive months of growth. In the January-July period, output decreased by 0.7% y/y.
Industrial production in July from June in m/m terms grew by 0.3%, while the seasonally adjusted decline was 1.3% m/m, the State Statistics Service said on August 22.
The economy was starting to recover nicely in the fourth quarter of last year, but the economic blockade of the separatist-held Donbas region, amongst other problems, has set progress back. Industrial production has been slowing in recent months after posting 3.8% y/y growth in June and 1.2% y/y in May, according to the State Statistics Service.
All core sectors worsened except for chemicals, which improved 26.7% y/y compared to 1.0% y/y in June, Concorde Capital said in a note.
1Q '15
2Q '15
3Q '15
4Q '15
1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17
2Q'17
Russia inflation CPI and components
Romania GDP y/y
www.bne.eu
GDP y/y
Ukraine industrial production
Inflation y/y %