Page 7 - bne_Magazine_September_2017

bne September 2017 The Month That Was I 7
Economics
Central Europe
Polish GDP growth maintained its heady pace in 2017 as it pushed to a seasonally-adjusted 4.4% y/y in the second quarter, according to prelimi- nary estiamtes by the Central Statistical Office GUS. The result shows rapid rate of growth in the first three months of the year of 4% persists.
Czech GDP growth accelerated to a similar rate of 4.5% y/y in the second quarter, statistics office CZSO reported. While forecasts for economic growth across 2017 were raised following Q1’s robust 3%, the reading far outstripped expectations. Confidence in the Czech economy in August was its highest level since the start of the year.
Czech unemployment maintained its march to record lows in June, as the rate of joblessness amongst those aged 15-64 dropped 1.3pp y/y and 0.1pp
in monthly terms to sit at a seasonally adjusted 2.9%. Czech unemployment continues to routinely set new all-time records and remains the lowest rate of joblessness in the EU.
Hungarian gross wages grew at the fastest pace in 11 years, up 14.4% in June, to stand at HUF297,300 (€978). The reduction in personal income tax from 16% to 15% from January 1 and persistently low inflation helped. Private sector wages rose at the fastest pace since 2006, up 13.5% y/y. Hungar-
ian retail sales grew 5.2% y/y in June, according to statistics office KSH on the back of rising incomes. Sales grew 5.7% y/y when adjusted for calendar effects.
Hungarian GDP growth slowed to 3.2% y/y in the second quarter of the year, a flash estimate from statistics office KSH showed. Although still strong, the reading marks Hungary out as the only Visegrad economy to see GDP growth drop below the rate of 4.2% recorded in the first three months of the year.
Southeast Europe
Youth unemployment in the aspir- ing EU member states of the Western Balkans is uniformly high, with the world’s highest youth unemployment rate recorded in Bosnia & Herzegovina (62.8%). Kosovo has youth unemploy- ment of 55.3% (and as high as 63.8% for young women) is third placed on the global index, following Bosnia and Namibia (56.2%).
Turkey’s foreign trade deficit jumped 80.4% y/y to $8.8bn in July having declined 9.1% y/y to $6.01bn in June. The government is forecasting a foreign trade deficit of $60.7bn for this year with exports reaching $153bn and imports amounting to $214bn.
The net inflow of foreign direct investment in Romania contracted by 42% y/y to €678mn in Q2, according to data released by the central bank. FDI inflows generated by non-residents in Romania in the rolling 12 months ending June were €3.851mn, down from a peak value of €4,416mn in March, and no longer cover the current account deficit (€4.754mn in the 12 months ending June).
Eastern Europe
Russia’s spike in fruit & veg pric-
es that soared following terrible weather in May appears over as the headline inflation rate fell to a new post- Soviet low of 3.7%, clearing the way for more rate cuts by the central bank in September.
Russian industrial production has markedly decelerated following a strong spring. It came in at 1.1% y/y in July, paling against June's 3.5% y/y. However, at least the growth is broad- based and up in all eight of Russia’s federal districts.
The average life expectancy in Russia in the first half of this year
was up by half a year to 72.4 years, according to Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets, due to a decrease in mortality, reports Vedomosti. How- ever, the overall population size is expected to start shrinking from here due to low life expectancy in the 90s.
Ukraine's real GDP grew 2.4% year- on-year across April-June, the Ukrstat state statistics agency said, down from 4.2% in the fourth quarter of 2016. Ukraine's industrial production plunged 2.6% y/y in July after two consecutive months of growth, partly due to the economic blockage of the Donbas.
Eurasia
Kazakhstan’s gross FDI inflow rose 40% y/y to $20.6bn in 2016, recover- ing from a 30% plunge in 2015. The rise exceeded Kazakhstan’s initial expecta- tion of attracting $10bn in FDI in 2016.
Turkmenistan’s economy expanded by 6.4% y/y in the first half of 2017. Growth expanded very slightly from the same period of 2016 when it was 6.1%.
Azerbaijan's customs committee failed to register $24.8bn worth of imports between 2010 and 2015, resulting in $5bn worth of state budget tax losses,
a Meydan TV investigation revealed. Trade data reported by the committee and by UN trade agency Comtrade was compared.
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