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accountsed for only 6.8% of the total year; therefore the 11.5% decline would eventually not dent the full year performance too much. "Ultimately, we will leave unchanged the latest GDP forecast, which predicts a recovery of about 4% of GDP in 2021 and 7.5% in 2022," TBC Capital added in a statement released at the end of February.
Galt & Taggart investment bank has two scenarios for Georgia’s recovery this year. The led to 3.6% and 5% growth rates, respectively.
3.2 Macro outlook
World Bank sees robust recovery in Georgia after steeper than expected decline in 2020
Georgia looks to have ended last year with a steeper than expected contraction in growth, but will this year recover most of the ground lost and will see a higher than previously expected GDP expansion next year, according to the latest issue of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects. The World Bank has maintained its projection for Georgia’s economy, previously updated in October.
At that time, the institution revised downward its estimate for last year’s GDP growth in Georgia to minus 6%, from the minus 4.8% projected last June. After 4% growth in 2021, Georgia’s economy could gain another 6% in 2022 thus returning to pre-pandemic robust growth rates, it added.
“Growth in the South Caucasus subregion is projected to rise to 2.5% in 2021, as the shocks related to the pandemic and conflict dissipate, and as tourism recovers alongside improving consumer and business confidence,” the report said.
The World Bank also said in its latest forecasting: “If the downturn in travel [caused by the pandemic] is prolonged, growth outcomes [in 2021] could be much weaker, particularly in tourism-dependent economies. Delays in the production, procurement, or distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, lower-than-expected vaccine effectiveness, or the continuation of pandemic-related restrictions could also delay the economic recovery.”
The World Bank revised down its forecasts for global economic growth in 2021 to 4% from 4.2% as previously estimated, after a contraction of 4.3% in 2020, and warned that an increase in cases of COVID-19 infection and delays in vaccine distribution could limit this year's return to just 1.6%.
17 GEORGIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com