Page 10 - Poland Outlook 2020
P. 10
“While we see the scope for a CPI decline in the second half of 2020 as more limited than the NBP expects (reflecting continuously rising service prices), easing by key central banks and prospects of economic slowdown domestically effectively exclude rate hikes. We see rate cuts as more likely, but no sooner than in late-2021,” ING forecast.
On average, CPI should reach almost 3%, but another year of frozen retail electricity prices could deduct about 0.3pp from that.
2020 inflation forecasts from selected banks operating in Poland, in %
BNP Paribas 3
Credit Agricole 2.3
Citi Handlowy 2.6
mBank 3.3
Deutsche Bank Polska 2.8 Alior Bank 2.6
Bank Pekao 3
BOŚ Bank 3.2
Santander Bank Polska 2.9 Bank Pocztowy 3
PKO BP 3.2
Bank Millennium 3
Bank Śląski 3.1
(source: Puls Biznesu)
• Debt
Poland government bonds (POLGBs) produced small gains in late 2019, adding marginally to the more than 4% total return the previous year. Favourable supply dynamics in 2020 due to the no-deficit central budget plans add to analysts’ mildly bullish short-term POLGB view. Household deposits should keep outpacing credit, so local banks remain main POLGBs buyers, analysts say.
The post-election rationalisation of the 2020 budget, via adding missing spending and deducting the business unfriendly hike of pension contribution
10 Poland Outlook 2020 www.intellinews.com
