Page 73 - RusRPTOct20

5.2.2​ Current account dynamics
The CBR on September 8 reported a current account surplus of $23.3bn in 8m20, down from $24.6bn in 7m20 and implying a deficit of $1.3bn in August.
The trade surplus reached $57.3bn in 8m20, up from $53bn in 7m20, implying a $4.3bn surplus during the month of August. We believe the expatriation of dividends received in July and August caused a serious income payment deficit and pushed the current account into negative territory, though this is a seasonal occurrence that takes place almost every year.
Surprisingly, capital outflow from the private sector eased in August. It reached $5.9bn in July, but August saw a minor net inflow of $0.1bn. This was probably related to a Eurobond placement during the month. Russia's gross international reserves rose by $0.2bn in August, judging by the CBR's data for 8m20 and 7m20.
The ruble remained weak in August following a period of depreciation at the end of June and in July on the back of dividend payments, though the capital outflow did not pose a significant problem for the FX market.
Indicators $bn
January - August 2020 (estimate)
January-August 2019
Current account
23.3
49
Trade balance
57.3
109.8
Private sector financial balance
34.8
20
Change in reserve assets *
-8.6
45.4
source: CBR
5.2.4​ Gross international reserves
At the end of August, the National Welfare Fund, which raises funds through energy sector taxation, stood at $180bn, or 11.7% of this year’s projected GDP​.
The size of the oil fund, measured in dollars, has grown by about 45% this year. In March of this year, oil and gas revenues saved from last year were transferred to the fund ( ​BOFIT Weekly 2020/13​ ), and in addition, for example,
74 ​RUSSIA Country Report​ October 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com