Page 50 - RusRPTSept19

$5.6bn surplus in July.
A good result but still below the $56.5bn surplus registered in 7m18, mostly due to a lower trade surplus ($96bn in 7m19 compared with $102.6bn in 7m18) amid lower oil prices (Brent averaged 8% lower y/y in 7m19), reports Sberbank CIB.
On the financial side, capital outflow from the private sector was $28.0bn, only slightly up from the $27.3bn registered in 6m19.
FX reserves increased $43.1bn in 7m19 as the CBR continued FX purchases and the Finance Ministry placed a few sovereign Eurobonds. The data suggests that capital inflow to the public sector continued in July, which correlates with the rising share of non-residents in the OFZ market.
“The latest figures are in line with our forecast of an $86bn current account surplus for the full year, assuming that the average Brent price stays at $66/bbl,” Sberbank CIB said in a note.
50 RUSSIA Country Report September 2019 www.intellinews.com