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GLNG COMMENTARY GLNG
Reuters sources. A Kpler market analyst, Nath- alie Leconte, told the news service the tanker had been diverted towards the South China Sea on January 30 and was now between Vietnam and Borneo. Its new destination has not been con rmed.
Kpler data also showed this week that the Al Kharsaah LNG tanker changed its destination to the Tianjin LNG terminal in northern China on February 2 from the Zhejiang terminal near Shanghai. As the latter area is reported to have the highest number of confirmed cases out- side Hubei, where the coronavirus originated, the move is thought to be in response to the outbreak.
Long-distance impact
e developments in China have major reper- cussions for the US’ LNG export industry, despite the fact that the trade war between the two countries has led to their LNG trade collaps- ing in the past two years.
China recently pledged to buy an additional $18.5bn in US energy products this year under a preliminary deal, and LNG exporters were hopeful of reaping the bene ts, despite the fact that Chinese tari s of 25% on US LNG have not yet been li ed. e coronavirus outbreak com- plicates the resumption of US-China LNG trade further still.
LNG customers are facing a situation where they may not be able to a ord to cover their ship- ping costs as spot prices keep falling to new lows. Late last year, Singaporean gas company Pavil- ion Energy took the unusual step of cancelling the loading of an LNG cargo from the Cameron LNG terminal on the US Gulf Coast. ere are now worries that other customers – such as com- modity trading houses – will take similar steps as the cost of shipping their cargoes becomes less attractive. If this happens, it could lead in turn to LNG export terminals being forced to shut in production as their storage tanks ll up.
“Forward prices for summer are now at levels where US LNG shut-ins begin to seem viable,” an FGE analyst, Edmund Siau, told Bloomberg this week. “ ere is usually a lead time before a cargo can be cancelled, and we expect actual supply curtailments to start happening in summer.”
ese expectations are backed up by the fact that feed gas deliveries to US liquefaction termi- nals reached a new record high of 9.13bn cubic feet (259mn cubic metres) per day on January 28, according to data rm Genscape. e more feed gas deliveries rise, the more acute the oversupply situation is likely to become.
Buyers of US LNG can typically opt out of taking contracted supplies with 30-60 days’ notice. And Bloomberg cited the managing director of Cheniere Energy’s marketing arm in London, Eric Bensaude, as saying that if this were to happen, the company would likely reduce LNG production at its two Gulf Coast terminals. According to Bensaude, any decisions by Cheniere’s buyers to cancel cargoes are likely to be made in March or April, during a period of seasonally lower demand when conditions are generally reassessed. Buyers of LNG from Cheniere – the US’ leading LNG exporter – have to pay a fee to cancel a cargo.
US LNG producers remain optimistic about longer-term demand, but in the short term, market conditions look increasingly more dif- ficult. It is hard to estimate the full extent of the impact the coronavirus epidemic will have on LNG demand, because there is no basis for comparison. e Sars outbreak in 2003, to which the coronavirus epidemic has been compared, occurred at a time when Chinese energy infra- structure was not as developed, and before the country started importing LNG. Demand and imports have since boomed, and the effects across the global LNG industry illustrate this. Much now depends on how long it takes for the current epidemic to run its course.™
The coronavirus outbreak complicates the resumption of US- China LNG trade further still.
An LNG tanker en
route to China has
been diverted, while another one changed its destination to a different Chinese terminal.
Week 05 06•February•2020 w w w. N E W S B A S E . c o m
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