Page 22 - bne_newspaper_March_15_2019

Opinion
March 15, 2019 www.intellinews.com I Page 22
COLCHIS:
Brexit’s Risks and
Opportunities for the
Eastern Partnership
Alexander Nice of the Eurasia Democratic Security Network
Barring any last-minute drama, the United Kingdom will cease to be a member of the European Union on March 29, 2019. Brexit represents a fundamental challenge to the European Union, which will lose its second biggest economy and a critical security actor.
It also poses a serious question about the future of the EU itself. It has shown that the direction of travel for EU states is not foreordained; countries can leave as well as join the bloc; and “ever- closer Union” is not inevitable. Moreover, the concerns that drove the UK to leave the EU – over immigration, sovereignty and democratic control – are not unique to British voters.
It is widely assumed that Brexit is bad news
for Eastern Partnership countries (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Georgia). On a financial level, the UK’s withdrawal means the EU will leave a €94 billion hole in the next budgeting round for 2021-27 (the Multiannual Financial Framework, MFF), potentially reducing the funds available for external engagement. However, the EU Commission’s proposals for the MFF have recommended covering these costs through cuts to the Common Agricultural Policy and the Cohesion Funds for existing members. Spending on external action, security and
defence is set to rise under the Commission’s proposals. Under the plans, the budget for the Neighbourhood Development and International Cooperation Instrument will rise by 30% at current prices (or around 20% in real terms).
Beyond financial considerations, the risks posed by Brexit for Eastern Partnership countries are
still up in the air. A lot depends on what is agreed, or not, between the EU and the UK the deadline expires in March. It looks increasingly likely that the UK will go over the cliff of a “no deal” Brexit and leaves the EU without an agreement on transitional arrangements to a new trading and legal relationship.
Both the UK and EU want to avoid a cliff-edge Brexit, but the nature of the withdrawal process means it becomes the default if an agreement is not ratified by March 29, 2019. In mid-September, a panel of experts surveyed by the UK in a Changing Europe initiative put the risk of No Brexit at around 50%, but it looks almost certain now as the deadline looms.
The legal and regulatory vacuum arising from
a chaotic “No Deal” Brexit would inflict serious damage on the UK economy. More consequentially for Eastern Partnership countries, it could lead
to a breakdown in normal diplomatic relations between the UK and EU. Amid financial upheaval and mutual recrimination, public opinion and political discourse in the UK could take a sharply nationalist turn. No one really knows how long
a No Deal Brexit could be sustained, but the potential for it to inflict long-standing damage
on UK-EU relations is high, undermining the potential for ongoing strategic and foreign policy cooperation in the short to medium-term.
A breakdown in relations between the UK and the EU is clearly not in the interests of the Eastern Partnership countries. It is already widely argued that the EU’s internal problems leave it with little