Page 14 - IRANRptDec20

Iran on course for GDP contraction of 5% in 2020 but expansion of 3.2% in 2021 says IMF
Iran’s coronavirus-hit GDP to shrink 5.3% in 2020 says World Bank
The Iranian economy would remain fragile, though “not to the brink of collapse” if most of the sanctions remain in place, the IIF said.
Under such a “pessimistic” scenario, Iran would post 1.8% growth next year, while its foreign reserves would gradually fall from around $80bn this year to $46.9bn by end-2023.
Approximately 90% of Iran’s official reserves are frozen abroad due to US sanctions.
Iran’s GDP will contract 5% this year but bounce back by 3.2% next year, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) updated forecasting given in its ​latest World Economic Outlook​. ​The Islamic Republic’s economy, battered by US sanctions, shrank 6.5% in 2019 and 5.4% in 2018.
Iranian consumer prices in 2019 rose 41% last year and are on course to grow 30.5% this year and 30% in 2021, the IMF said.
Looking at Iran’s current account balance as a percentage of GDP, the Fund gave figures of 1.1%, -0.5% and 0.3% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively. Unemployment was expected to grow to 12.2% for 2020 from 10.7% in 2019 and rise to 12.4% in 2021, the IMF added.
Iran will likely have to reckon with a GDP contraction of 5.3% in 2020, partly reflecting the effects of its large-scale coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on domestic consumption and the services sectors, according to the June edition of the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report released on June 8.
In the January edition, released before the shock impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the international financial institution was predicting that Iran would have flat growth at exactly 0.0% following its two years of recession triggered by the reintroduction of US sanctions. Iran can at least look forward to 2.1% of growth next year if the World Bank’s latest forecasting proves correct. In January, it was only predicting 1%.
Looking at the effect of the world downturn on oil producers including Iran—although the US is attempting to force all Iranian oil off world markets—the World Bank observed: “In many oil exporters, growth will be significantly constrained by renewed policy cuts in oil production.”
Iran’s annual inflation rate has been falling lately, although it still remains elevated at around 20%, the World Bank also said.
Iran - Main Macro Indicators
N​ominal GDP (USD mn) 144,666.7 (Mar 2020)
Real GDP Growth (%) -6.8 ( Mar 2020)
Nominal GDP Growth (%) 24.943 (Mar 2020)
GDP per Capita (USD) 5,494.057 (2018)
14​ IRAN Country Report December 2020 www.intellinews.com