Page 7 - bne_Magazine_October_2017

bne October 2017 The Month That Was I 7
Economics
Central Europe
Polish retail sales grew 6.9% y/y in constant prices in August, statistics office GUS announced. The reading marks a slight pick-up in the pace of growth after turnover expanded 6.8% in July.
Polish industrial production grew an unadjusted 8.8% y/y in August in constant prices, data from statistical office GUS showed. In seasonally adjusted terms, industrial production grew 8.1% y/y.
Wage growth in the Polish corporate sector accelerated to 6.6% y/y in August, statistics office GUS reported. Employment growth also picked up speed and came in at 4.6%.
Czech public sector wages are to rise by a minimum of 10% from November 1, Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka announced. With the general election due in October, government politicians have come under tremendous pressure to bow to union demands to provide greater rewards to teachers and other state workers given the run of unexpect- edly strong economic growth currently being enjoyed by Czechia and its ultra- low unemployment.
Slovakia's industrial output expanded for the third straight month in July. Data from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic showed it increas-
ing 9.2% y/y in the seventh month, far outstripping June’s 3.1% gain.
from €2.2bn a year ago. Adjusted for seasonal effects, it was €2.78bn, or 9.2% of quarterly GDP.
Southeast Europe
The Macedonian economy shrank by a real 1.8% y/y in the second quarter of 2017, compared to zero growth in the previous quarter, an estimate from the statistics office said. The figure was expected bearing in mind the lengthy political crisis in the country, which ended with the formation of a new gov- ernment led by the Social Democrats at the end of May.
Bulgaria’s real GDP increased 3.6% y/y in the second quarter of 2017, slightly accelerating from 3.5% y/y growth in Q1. The Q1 reading matched the flash estimate released last month.
Eastern Europe
Russian inflation hit a historic low
of 3.3% in August, exceeding expec- tations. Month-on-month CPI posted -0.5%, showing the first monthly defla- tion since August 2011.The result leaves little doubt that the inflation-minded Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will cut rates on September 15.
The new Russian three-year 2018- 2020 budget has less than RUB10bn ($172mn) per year worth of priva- tisation revenues planned, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said. The target is well down on the ambitious RUB1 trillion that was named as the target
in 2008.
Russia's finance ministry has cut the net domestic borrowing programme from RUB1.05 trillion (€15bn) annu- ally to RUB0.87 trillion, according to the draft federal budget approved by the government on September 18 on the back of better than expected economic recovery.
The Watcom Shopping index jumped to nearly 500 as Russia’s autumn shopping season starts, breaking the long run of misery earlier in this year. The index has been running below all the levels for the last four years. The 2017 shopping season has been worst since the index was launched in 2014.
Russia’s current account deficit stood at only $1.2bn in August and $6.5bn in June-August as Russia goes into twin deficit. Poor trade numbers came out on August 12 as Russia clocked up another deficit.
The Ukrainian government has sub- mitted the draft law on Ukraine's state budget for 2018. The budget deficit
is targeted at 2.4% of GDP, real GDP growth is at 3% year-on-year and infla- tion it at 7%. General budget revenues are expected to increase 15% to UAH1.1 trillion, while the minimum wage will be 16.3% higher than a year ago.
Eurasia
GDP for 1Q of the Iranian calendar year (started March 21) was posted at 6.5% y/y, by the Statistical Centre
of Iran (SCI). The non-oil economy expanded by 7% while the oil sector grew 4.6%. The central bank sometimes issues GDP figures that conflict with those of SCI.
The Kazakh tenge reached a 19-year low against the Russian ruble. Some traders suspect the central bank may be manipulating the rate to improve the country’s balance of trade with Russia.
Kazakhstan's foreign trade surplus stood at $10.98bn in January-July, up 59.1% y/y. Exports jumped to $26.94bn, growing by 35.3% y/y. Russian estimates project that annual trade between Kazakhstan and Russia should grow by 35-40% by the end
of 2017.
Hungary’s current account showed a seasonally adjusted surplus of €1.76bn in the second quarter, down
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