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3.0 Macro Economy
Georgia - Main Macro Indicators 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* Q1 2020* Q2 2020
GDP real growth (y/y, %)
3.0 2.6 4.8 4.8 5.1 2.2 -12.3
GDP per capita (at current prices), 4,012.6 4,062.1 4,358.5 4,722.0 4,763.5 1,017.1 961.2 USD
GDP per capita (at current prices), GEL
9,109.4 9,613.9 10,933.9 11,968.0 13,428.9 2,976.6 3,016.0
GDP at current prices, (USD bn)
14.9 15.1 16.2 17.6 17.7 3.8 3.6
GDP at current prices, (GEL bn)
33.9 35.8 40.8 44.6 50.0 11.1 11.2
GDP deflator (y/y, %)
5.8 2.6 8.5 4.4 6.6 6.1 6.3
Source: Geostat
3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Georgia’s GDP contracts 12.3% y/y in Q2
Georgia’s GDP contracted by a real 12.3% y/y in Q2, while in nominal terms it reached Georgian lari (GEL) 11.21bn ($3.6bn), according to the first detailed quarterly data released by statistics office Geostat.
The country’s economy thus posted a modest 2.2% y/y advance in Q1 but suffered a 5.8% y/y contraction in H1.
Economic output shrank by 5.5% y/y in July, marking the country’s smallest annual contraction in a month since the outbreak of the coronavirus froze economic activity in April.
The most marked decline in Q2 was in hotel/restaurant/café (HoReCa), which declined some 40% y/y. Most sectors posted negative performances, but agriculture (4.7% y/y), mining (6.4% y/y), healthcare and social (14.3% y/y) and education (11.7% y/y) were in positive territory.
The largest shares of GDP by activity were taken by trade (14.6%), real estate activities (12.7%) and agriculture, forestry and fishing (10.2%), followed by manufacturing (9.9%), construction (6.8%), transportation and storage (6.1%) and education (5.6%).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expecting a 5% contraction in Georgia's economic output this year and anticipates that the possible realisation of risks may require maintaining exchange rate flexibility and additional policy support, according to a Fund statement issued at the end of a “virtual visit” paid to Georgian authorities in September.
The IMF previously predicted a 4% contraction in the country's economy this year and a return to growth, at 4%, in 2021. The Georgian authorities as things stand predict that the economy will contract by 4% this year.
12 GEORGIA Country Report October 2020 www.intellinews.com
