Page 28 - bne IntelliNews Russia Country report May 2017

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro Indicators
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Annual GDP (y/y)
4.5 4.26 3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7 -0.5
GDP (per capita)
10675 13323.88 14078.83 15531 13873 9055 8,731
GDP: Final consumption expenditure, (local currency)
32096141 37208226 42205094 47163119 56336400 59116800 59,822,700
GDP: Gross fixed investment capital formation, (local currency)
10472700 13982500 15223900 15077000 16436100 16812800 18,112,400
GDP: Exports, (local currency)
13529300 16940900 18413100 18936600 21464200 23606500 22,124,300
GDP: Imports, (local currency)
9789600 12164400 13848100 15014100 16296400 17095200 17,685,800
Source: Rosstat
4.1 Industrial production
Russian industry expanded output by 1.9% in May down from 2.3% y/y in April, Rosstat reported..
Growth was primarily driven by the resource industry (4.2% y/y) and utilities (5.5%), not least due to the abnormally cold weather last month.
The growth dynamic in the manufacturing industry remained sluggish at 0.6% y/y v 1% seen in March.
Strong output was recorded in the natural gas and automotive industries,
while food, construction materials, textiles and footwear, and a few other sectors demonstrated mixed dynamics. A sizable contributions could have been delivered by the extraction of natural gas (+10.1% y/y) and coal mining (+8.6%).
The sizes of the sectors are different: oil and gas contributed 85% off value added in mining, while coal’s share was 4.9%.
Higher than expected production mainly related to weather factor. To a large extent, the better-than-expected volume of industrial production last month was the result of the weather factor: an abnormally cold April boosted heating and energy consumption in Russia and Europe and supported stronger output in gas and electricity production.
However, the seasonally-adjusted data also shows gradual improvement in the industrial dynamic , with growth increasing from 0.8% y/y in March to 1.4% last month. This matches our expectation. BCS reiterate its FY17 forecast for industrial production at 2.8% y/y.
28 RUSSIA Country Report May 2017 www.intellinews.com