Page 53 - bne IntelliNews Russia Country report May 2017

Parameters of the federal budget’s 2016 2017(OLD) 2017(NEW)** official items
Average annual Urals price, $/bbl 41 40 45.6
Average annual RUB/USD FX rate 67 67.5 64.2
GDP, % YoY -0.20% 0.60% 2.00%
Inflation, % Dec./Dec. 5.40% 4.00% 3.80%
Revenues, RUB trln 13.4 13.5 14.6
Éoil and gas revenues 4.8 5.1 5.8
Énon-oil and gas revenues 7.9 8.4 8.8
ÉRosneft privatization 0.7 0 0
Expenditures, RUB trln 16.4 16.2 16.6
Balance, RUB trln -3 -2.8 -1.9
... % of GDP -3.50% -3.20% -2.10%
Net increase in local debt, RUB bln 0.5 1.1 1.1
Spending from sovereign funds, RUB bln -2.1 -1.8 -1.1*
Source: MinFin
6.1.4 Budget dynamics - non-oil deficit
OIl used to be the key factor in Russia’s budget income and since the prices collapsed at the end of 2014 the non-oil income has become more important .
OIl revenues have always made up about half of the Ministry of Finance budget revenues as percentage of GDP over the last decade. In absolute terms the amount of cash has risen steeply, but that has lifted the whole economy keeping the proportion in the revenues about the same. (2009 was an exception, when it fell to 40% after oil prices fell briefly to $35.)
However, more recently oil’s share has fallen again but remains very volatile as a share of revenues leaving the Kremlin to try and cope with very volatile income. In 2016 the share of oil revenues in the government’s income bounced between 25% (March, December) and 50% (May, November).
At the same time the absolute amount of cash the Kremlin earned from oil exports remained relatively stable at just under RUB500bn per month for most
53 RUSSIA Country Report May 2017 www.intellinews.com