Page 60 - bne IntelliNews Russia Country report May 2017

8.0 Financial & capital markets
Russia - Bank lead indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Total bank loans (LC bn)
18,410 23,634 28,239 33,272 41,899 45,121 55,479
Total bank deposits (LC bn)
21,081 26,082 30,120 34,931 43,814 51,907 49,412
NPLs (% loans)
4.68 3.95 3.7 3.46 3.82 5.33 6.86
Banks: NPL ratio Retail (%)
6.91 5.24 4.05 4.42 5.89 8.09
Bank deposits (% GDP)
45.52 43.69 45 49.16 56.25 64.24
Bank loans (% GDP)
39.2 39 41.4 45.7 52.5 57.4
Bank capital to assets ratio
12.84 11.92 11.94 11.54 8.54 8.92 9.35
CAR: bank capital to risk-weighted assets
18.1 14.7 13.7 13.5 12.5 12.7 13.1
Total bank assets (LC bn)
33,805 41,628 49,510 57,423 77,653 83,000
Banks: Loans/deposits (%)
87.33 90.61 93.75 95.25 95.63 86.93
Banks: ROAE (%)
12.5 17.6 18.2 15.2 7.9 2.3
source: CBR
8.1 Bank sector overview
Russian banks are still vulnerable to negative changes in macroeconomic conditions , such as external shocks or commodity price fluctuations similar to that experienced in 2014, Sergei Voronenko, head of financial institutions ratings at S&P, was quoted as saying by Prime on May 23.
"Today we see the level of the overdue loans and bad assets that had matured in the three-year credit cycle and we don't expect further deterioration," Voronenko said.
Nevertheless, according to Voronenko, 80% of loans provided by Russian lenders are to face delays in repayment of more than 90 day this year, while between 14% and 16% of loans restructured in 2014-2016 are regarded as "toxic".
This level of banking reserves is insufficient and will present a problem if the country's GDP grows by less than 1.5% and the oil price falls below $50 in 2017, the S&P expert said. The forecast for the majority of Russian lenders is negative, he concluded.
Moody's Investors Service recently noted that potential stress in the banking system is one of the main risk factors for Russia's Ba1/Stable rating.
"Stress in the banking system would also be negative because the government
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