Page 7 - bne IntelliNews Russia Country report May 2017

wider grievances as the 2018 election approaches. Putin, who has not yet announced his candidacy, is expected to stroll to a fourth term in the Kremlin. Medvedev still remains, but is likely to be replaced before the elections to spare Putin from being tainted by association with the waning popularity of the premier.
But even if the Moscow demolition controversy is resolved peacefully, this could sow future trouble for the city and national authorities. Horizontal networks of citizens mobilised by the housing crisis will stay in place to tackle other issues, warns the Carnegie Moscow Centre. “New dissenters have ample opportunity to express their opinion in the coming months, with a number of elections looming on the political horizon, ranging from municipal Moscow elections in September to the presidential election early next year,” it says
2.2 Regional elections dress rehearsal for 2018 goes wrong
The Kremlin’s aim to increase turnout in regional elections (widely seen as a rehearsal for the Presidential election) has come into conflict with the electoral needs of governors, Vedomosti reports per officials close to the presidential administration.
The Kremlin has already had to walk away from its 70/70 strategy -- a 70% turnout in the 2018 presidential election and 70% vote for Putin -- as it’s not going to happen.
The Kremlin has pushed regional governments to drive voter turnout. But it has excused five regions—Sverdlovsk, Yaroslavl, Kaliningrad, Kirov, and Buryatia, where the Kremlin-preferred gubernatorial candidate is perceived to be at political risk—from this task. Per unnamed officials, the Kremlin fears that higher turnout could work against their gubernatorial candidates.
In the Sverdlovsk and Buryatia regions, the acting governors appointed by the Kremlin face serious competitors , and in the Yaroslavl and Kirov regions the local elite has not accepted the Kremlin-appointed governors, according to Vedomosti’s source.
In Kaliningrad the Kremlin is running a young candidate who is not from the region . Notes political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko: in all of the listed regions there is either a “tradition of protest” or a strong opposition candidate.
In such contested scenarios, a more “passive” turnout usually benefits the Kremlin-backed incumbents .
But the Kremlin is walking a fine line, and its strategy of selectively discouraging turnout in certain regions could dampen overall turnout , and reinforce a narrative that Russians’ are disenfranchised with their political system.
2.3 Russia must reform now or face stagnation
7 RUSSIA Country Report May 2017 www.intellinews.com
There is a historic battle going on amongst the Kremlin’s intellectuals over