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April 21, 2017 www.intellinews.com I Page 2
After the storm in Turkey
lions take to the streets for three months in 2013 appear not have been borne out, with no protests reported towards the end of the week.
After warnings from President Erdogan, at least 38 people accused of participating in the protests were rounded up on the morning of April 19 or issued with arrest warrants, according to reports. There were subsequent protests that evening by hundreds of people in several cities across Turkey in a show of defiance.
Protestors, backed by international observer missions, claim the referendum campaign was conducted in an unfair environment in which opposition voices were suppressed and voting irregularities took place. However, on the same day as the arrests, Turkey’s electoral commis- sion rejected an appeal by the opposition to an- nul the entire referendum over the commission’s controversial decision to raise the burden need- ed to prove allegations of ballot-box stuffing. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation
in Europe (OSCE) has also raised concerns over alleged irregularities and the European Commis- sion urged the Turkish authorities to investigate those claims.
Meanwhile, reports emerged on April 20 that President Erdogan will hold talks with European leaders and top EU officials on the sidelines of
a Nato summit in Brussels on May 25, in what
is being seen as an attempt to repair Turkey-EU relations that have been strained since last year’s failed coup attempt.
Brussels has voiced concern over the wide- spread purges of alleged coup supporters and other measures introduced following the botched putsch, as well as complained about an unseemly diplomatic spat after Germany and the Nether-
lands prevented Turkish ministers from address- ing rallies on their soil to drum up support for Erdogan in the referendum. Erdogan described Europe as “fascist and cruel” and said that the policies of European countries resemble those of the pre-World War II era.
Following the referendum, German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for political discussions with Turkey. According to unofficial results, 63% of Turks living in Germany voted Yes in the referen- dum while in the Netherlands the corresponding figure was 71%.
Talks are underway to arrange bilateral or trilat- eral meetings between Erdogan and European Commission head Juncker and European Council President Donald Tusk, Hurriyet Daily News report- ed, which also said Erdogan will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi on May 3 and then will pay a visit to the US between May 16 and May 17 for talks with President Donald Trump.
There have been financial and economic ramifica- tions from the referendum result. The stock mar- ket might have risen 2.1% during the week since the referendum (see this week’s chart), though Moody’s Investors Service said in a report pub- lished on April 19 that the combination of a polar- ised electorate, a turbulent geopolitical backdrop, ongoing uncertainty in policy and large external financing requirements suggests that Turkey's vulnerability to shocks will continue to weigh on the country's creditworthiness. On March 17, Moody’s lowered Turkey’s rating outlook to nega- tive from stable.
Earlier this week, fellow agency Fitch Ratings argued that the April 16 referendum on introduc- ing an executive presidency amounted to part
of a political shift that has proved negative for the country's sovereign credit profile, although
it might conceivably facilitate a revival of credit- positive economic reforms. The government has pledged to carry out much-needed but long- delayed structural reforms now that the referen- dum has passed.