Page 102 - RusRPTJan22

Decarbonisation cost of Russian economy, of 29 November,” VTBC added.
9.1.12 Transport sector news
In November, the Russian railway network carried 108mnt of cargo, a 3% y/y increase (or 3mnt), ahead of the 2% expected by RZD.
To this growth, oil contributed 2mnt (due to easing OPEC+ quotas) and metals added 1mnt (due to the low base), while the decline in coal and grain was cancelled out by the increase in construction materials and lumber.
Demand for gondolas remained strong, and November rates were at RUB1,357/day, up 9% m/m, as coal export prices were still way above breakeven.
Oil tank rates were at RUB1,133/day, up 2% m/m. For December, RZD expects volumes growth at 3% y/y, which would bring FY21 to 1,285mnt, up 3% y/y, marginally below the 1,290mnt of 2018 (the record over the last 10 years).
However, this is set to be a record year in terms of turnover, due to the increase in the share of long-leg cargos, such as coal.
Coal. Coal volumes of 31mnt were down 1% y/y. This is the second month of decline in a row, due to the capacity constraints of the railway network in the Russian Far East, we believe. Nevertheless, demand for gondolas was strong, as coal prices remained elevated, even after the recent correction: FOB Europe was $147/t, down 32% m/m (vs. $45/t breakeven), and FOB Far East was $163/t, a 27% m/m decline (vs. $50/t breakeven). As a result, gondola rates were up 9% m/m to RUB1,357/day.
Oil. The segment has almost recovered after the 2020 drop. November saw volumes of 19mnt, up 10% y/y (and down just 1% to the pre-COVID 2019).
Building materials. Construction materials were at 10mnt, up 3% y/y, a sign that the economy is recovering.
Metals. Metallurgical cargos were at 20mnt, up 5% y/y on the low base (up 2% to the 2019 level).
Cost of repairs. Repair expenses (the floor for gondola rates) grew to RUB468/day, up 1% m/m.
Fleet. The gondola fleet expanded 1,376 units in October to 590,894 cars, annualised m/m growth of 3%. Car prices stood at RUB3.5mn. The tank fleet
102 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com