Page 122 - RusRPTJan22

announcement), which might have attracted short-term interest (incl. retail investors). The ex-date is 13-Dec 2021.
The stock trades with a marginal discount to Yara on 2021F EV/EBITDA (Bloomberg, as of 30-Nov 2021) , but with 40% on the 2022F multiple, which reflects Acron’s better positioning in terms of the global gas price increase (hence, Acron’s EBITDA is to grow 80% y/y in 2022F vs broadly flat Yara’s).
However, there is only a 20% discount to CF Industries, which has gas costs that are also less volatile than European producers’. Given the recent upgrade of CF’s 2022 EBITDA consensus (+8% over the last month), we expect the discount to narrow further, ceteris paribus.
We consider Acron’s stock could be a bit overheated and see limited upside for the price in the near future (unless there is another push to the N-market which drives all nitrogen stocks), despite expecting a strong performance from the financials.
We have updated our macro-projections (towards a weaker RUB) and rolled our model one quarter forward. We have also increased our 2022F dividend payment estimate to $323mn (the average of the 2020 and 2021 payments). This implies a 10% NTM DY.
● Other
Norilsk Nickel reported yesterday, 2 December, that the company has started joint operations with Russian Platinum Group. MNOD is set to provide Russian Platinum Group subsidiary Chernogorskaya Mining Company with power, transportation and logistics over the next five years. Russian Platinum Group holds the license for the exploration and development of Chernogorskaya and the southern flanks of the Norilsk-1 ore deposits. In 2020, Russian Platinum Group exited Arctic Palladium, a 50/50 JV between Russian Platinum Group and MNOD. Chernogorskaya Mining Company signed contracts with MNOD’s Global Palladium Fund to supply base metals and PGM concentrate for five years from the commencement of production. In the above configuration, MNOD bears no developmental or operational risks from the new project, and the company should benefit from off-take agreements while not having to provide $3.5bn in capex, we consider.
Metalloinvest becomes world leader in iron ore reserves. Following an evaluation of its iron ore reserves in accordance with international JORC 2012 standards, Metalloinvest has determined that its economically recoverable iron ore reserves amount to 15.4 billion tonnes, as of 1 January 2021. The assessment was carried out with the involvement of a leading international consultancy-verifier, the British company SRK. The Competent Person's
122 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com