Page 64 - RusRPTJan22

8.1.4 NPLs
In November, corporate overdue debt increased significantly - by RUB163bn. (+ 5.7%), but the growth is entirely technical in nature - old problematic loans that have long been fully reserved, and therefore did not have any impact on the sector's results. Without taking into account this factor, corporate overdue debt in November decreased by RUB20bn (-0.7%). In the retail portfolio, the growth in overdue debt was quite significant (RUB15bn, or 1.5%; in October: + 1.4%) and occurred mainly in the segment of consumer loans.
8.1.8 Sberbank news
Sber (formerly known as Sberbank) is one of the most popular stocks on the Russian market amongst international investors. It is also a financial powerhouse that is helping to drive economic growth. And finally it is funding Russia’s technological innovation and transformation to a digital economy. On December 15 it held a Capital Markets Day where it outlined expectations for the full year of 2021 and gave guidance for what is in store in 2022:
FY21 guidance
· ROE is expected to be at or above 23%.
· Net profit is anticipated to be near RUB1.2trillion.
· NIM is expected to lose slightly more than 20bps vs. FY20.
· Cost of risk is seen in the range of 0.7-0.9%.
· Revenue from SBER’s non-financial business is likely to nearly
triple from RUB71.4bn in 2020 to RUB200bn in 2021.
FY22-23 guidance
· ROE is expected to be at or above 20% for 2022-23.
· Opex growth is expected to be 15% for 2022-23, with the C/I ratio
for SBER’s financial business at c. 33%.
· The growth in the corporate loan book is expected to be 7-10% for
2022, which is in line with the sector.
· The growth in the retail loan book is expected to be 10-12% for
2022, slightly outperforming the sector.
· The growth in retail deposits is expected to be 6-8% for 2022,
which is in line with the sector.
· The growth in corporate deposits is expected to be 11-13% for
2022, which is slightly better than the sector.
· NIM forecasts visibly improved, and NIM is now expected to
moderate just 5bps over 2022 and a further 20bps over 2023. This means that SBER’s FY23 NIM is expected to be 30-50bps above
64 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com