Page 69 - RusRPTJan22

underpin the 2020-25F retail loan CAGR of 11.8% and a structural shift of retail savings in favour of investment products, particularly in life insurance. With life/non-life GWP at 0.4/1.0% of GDP, we see convergence potential to the respective EM averages of 0.7%/1.2%, with a 2021-25F GWP CAGR of 9.4%. However, that would still leave penetration 0.1-0.2pp below the EM average.
Regulation. The CBR’s strong commitment to clean up and repair the market, along with increased solvency requirements from 2H21, creates a unique opportunity for both organic and inorganic growth. The ongoing healthcare/OMI reform, as well the liberalisation of telemedicine, is going to drive private demand for insurtech-backed VMI, in our view: we forecast 2020-25F GWP CAGR of 10.8%.
Attractive mix of profitable organic growth, selective M&A and option value on insurtech (VMI). RIG is well positioned to continue gaining market share, with a 2020-25F GWP CAGR of 15.0%, and 2020-25F net income CAGR of 25.4%, on our numbers. We see ROATE at 16.8-20.2%, with opportunistic M&A potentially boosting ROE to 30%. The 49% stake in the e-health spin-off Budu offers additional positive optionality.
TCS Group targets CAGR of 20% for retail loan book over next three to four years.
Tinkoff is second in the Russian credit-card market with a 15% market share, only trailing SBER (41%). New loan offerings outside of credit cards should show the fastest growth, in particular car loans and mortgages.
Tinkoff hosted a presentation on its lending segment yesterday, 16 December.
Current status
Tinkoff is one of the top two credit-card lenders in Russia, with a 15% market share in the segment.
Overall, TCS Group has c. 6m active credit customers across all loan products. Its market share in Russia’s non-mortgage retail loans is estimated at c. 4%.
TCS Group estimates its gross annualized revenue per active credit customer to be $305, more than double that of South Africa’s Capitec.
Tinkoff’s retail loan book of RUB 621bn generated 56% of the group’s revenue in 9M21.
69 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com