Page 86 - RusRPTJan22

9.1.1b Oil and gas sector news
Nord Stream -2 will not be launched in the first half of 2022. The German energy regulator's eagerly awaited decision on fully certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline won't come in the first half of next year, a setback for the Russian project that has fueled global political tensions. Pressure on the project has intensified in recent weeks considering diplomatic tensions between Moscow and western nations, mainly triggered by fears of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine. To get the certification, Nord Stream 2 had started setting up the subsidiary to comply with all rules and regulations, reported Reuters.
Gazprom announced it has fulfilled its obligations under the transit agreement with Ukraine on December 15, having transported 40bcm of gas in 2021, which corresponds to the volume under the agreement, according to Kommersant, referring to a statement from the company.
Storms and strong wind in Europe have brought down the gas price by 40% on December 26. The high winds boosted wind generation, and cut gas prices in Europe by a third from December 24 all-time high over the past two days. The contribution of wind generation to electricity generation in Europe rose to 13.8% on Thursday from 7.1%. Last week, the contribution of windmills to electricity generation in Europe averaged 13.7%. On December 26, gas trading ("day ahead" contract) on the TTF ended at $1,485 per thousand cubic metres after $1,997 on December 25 and a record $2,138 per thousand cubic metres on December 24.
President Putin instructs the government to submit proposals for Rosneft's gas supplies to Europe by 1 March. The government, together with Rosneft and Gazprom, must submit their proposals with regards to the experimental gas supplies to Europe to the president by 1 March 2022, Interfax reports. We believe that providing Rosneft with gas export rights would mostly be negative for Gazprom, in terms of both sentiment and finances (see our Morning Comment of 21 September). The 10bcm/a of potential export volumes for Rosneft in 2023, as specified in the instruction, would lead to Gazprom’s EBITDA being 1% lower than our forecast, and Rosneft’s EBITDA being up to 4% higher (subject to the agent agreement payment with Gazprom). While gas prices remain high, investors could underestimate the negative general effect on Gazprom’s sentiment from this potential development, we believe. To recap, the government generally supports giving Rosneft access to export as an experiment, although Gazprom is opposed.
Russian volumes of gasoline and diesel consumed in Russia in 2021 are set to exceed the volumes of the pre-pandemic 2019.
The demand for gasoline and diesel fuel in Russia this year is going to exceed the pre-pandemic 2019 level, Kommersant reports. According
86 RUSSIA Country Report January 2022 www.intellinews.com