Page 20 - IRANRptOct19

overall imports last year. Much of the trade is conducted by private Iraqi companies said to have limited exposure in and to the US, and its financial system, and therefore not overly anxious about being sanctioned.
On November 21, Iran announced that ​smuggled goods with a value of at least $12bn​ flowed into and out of Iran during the 2017/2018 Persian calendar year (ended March 21).
5.1.1 ​current account dynamics
Iran current account, USD mn
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Balance of payments overall
-947
21,436
12,213
13,189
8,561
2,233
Current account balance
27,554
58,507
23,362
25,105
15,861
1,237
16,388
15,816
Current account balance: % of GDP
5.66
10.08
3.87
5.43
3.12
0.32
3.92
Total Exports
130,500
95,500
82,000
88,800
63,000
Total Imports
62,661
59,999
51,914
48,138
52,007
40,097
41,945
54,459
Trade Balance
68,692
42,049
32,291
35,231
20,5000
Source: CEIC, Central Bank of Iran
Iran running a current account surplus and has over $100bn of gross official reserves, says IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in March that the government held $112bn of foreign assets and reserves. It also indicated that Iran was running a current account surplus.​ The figures imply that Iran might withstand the sanctions without an external payments crisis.
But the IMF also noted that Tehran was having difficulty accessing some of its reserves as its relations with foreign banks were constrained by the threat of US sanctions. Meanwhile, sanctions could cut the current account surplus sharply given the severe disruption they are causing to trade.
The IMF estimated in its World Economic Outlook released last October that Iran’s current account surplus would see a decline from 2.2% of GDP in 2017 to 1.3% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.
5.1.2 ​Import/export dynamics
Dollar squeezed out of Iran’s trade with Russia and seen less and less in trade with Turkey says central bank chief
All of Iran’s trade with Russia takes place in national currencies and 30-40% of trade with Turkey is also in national currencies, with the rest denominated in euros, the governor of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) was cited as saying by Radio Farda on September 26.
The sanctions regime imposed on Iran by the US precludes export and import transactions using the dollar, unless the trading parties are willing to risk sanctions or secondary sanctions. There is also an appetite in countries including Iran, Russia and Turkey to continually work to lower their exposure to the world’s reserve currency, thus lessening their exposure to any future US sanctions and global economic goals pursued by Washington.
CBI governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, known as a technocrat official, told Iranian news agency IRNA on September 25 that Iran does not have any trade in US dollars with Russia and Turkey.
The CBI has twice been hit by sanctions rounds incrementally introduced by
20​ IRAN Country Report​ October 2019 www.intellinews.com