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bne September 2021 Afghanistan falls to the Taliban I 29
collapsed weeks later. They left behind 11 APCs to the Taliban, The Wall Street Journal reported from Kabul.
The US spent an estimated $88bn
on the Afghan army to build up a force from nothing to 118,628 (not including the police force of a similar size) as of April 2021. In addition
to the ballooning manpower, the Pentagon spent heavily on weapons. The Taliban will inherit a sophisticated armoury of weapons, munitions and vehicles to make it one of the most powerful military forces in the region.
“Your regular reminder that 87% of Afghans support schooling for girls and the Taliban have never won the genuine political support of more than about 1 in 10 people. What we are witnessing in Afghanistan is a military coup sui generis and should be labelled as such,” tweeted Luke Cooper, an assistant professor at Bristol University.
Russian standing improves
The Taliban has gone out of its way to reassure Russia about its intentions, and specifically that it does not intend to spread its control beyond Afghanistan’s borders, acknowledging that Russia
is the major power in the region.
Russians had already moved non- essential personnel from the Kabul embassy to Tashkent on July 12, 10 days after the US pull out, as Russia had anticipated trouble from start. But as Russia has the major military force in the region, the Taliban are treating the Russians cautiously. Specifically on the day of the takeover of Kabul, the Taliban guaranteed the safety
of the Russian Embassy in Kabul, Suhail Shaheen, a spokesman for the Taliban’s political office told TASS.
"Yes, we have good relations with Russia and our policy in general is
to ensure the safe conditions for the functioning of the Russian and other embassies," he said in reply to a query.
Russia is keen to keep communications with the Taliban open as it tries
to prevent instability spilling over
into the rest of the region.
“RUS isn’t evacuating the embassy from Kabul. It keeps contacts w/Taliban & watches developments. Meanwhile, RUS forces exercise w/Uzbeks and Tajiks
in the neighbourhood. For Moscow,
the main issue is not who’s in power in Kabul, but whether radicals cross into Central Asia. For now, it looks unlikely,” Dmitri Trenin, director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, said in a tweet.
The crisis has improved Russia’s standing in the region as it is the security guarantor in the region. It has also sent troops and tanks from its base in Tajikistan to the Tajik border to ensure the fighting does not spill over. Russia has also in the last week held military exercises with the Uzbeks to bolster security there.
As the Taliban marched into Kabul, Russian President Vladimir Putin called his Uzbek counterpart Shavkat
have set up a tent camp near the border, but have remained reluctant to allow soldiers fleeing the fighting to cross. Iran has also set up tent camps for Afghans who cross into the Islamic Republic, but has warned that the refugees will be expected to return to Afghanistan once the situation in their country stabilises.
“For Uzbekistan, it could be a major blow to Mirziyoyev's connectivity projects, as well as alienating international investors scared of the regional fallout. Plus the possible flow of refugees,” said Davide Cancarini,
a researcher covering Central Asia.
“For Tajikistan, the worst-case scenario just materialised. The Tajik authorities have always strongly opposed the Taliban. A further militarisation of
the border is likely and Tajik president Emomali Rahmon will try to get
funds from everyone. He also has
“The Taliban has gone out of its way to reassure Russia about its intentions, and specifically that it does not intend to spread its control beyond Afghanistan’s borders”
Mirziyoyev to discuss developments.
"It was agreed to intensify interaction between the relevant ministries and departments of Russia and Uzbekistan," the Kremlin said in a statement.
Central Asia worried
All of Afghanistan’s neighbours
in Central Asia were on high alert as the government of Afghanistan collapsed. All of the countries in the region have tightened their borders.
“Reports circulated yesterday about Kazakhstan being ready to take in 2,000 refugees from Afghanistan, apparently in coordination with US govt. That has now been scotched
by Kazakh Foreign Ministry, which denies any such plans,” tweeted Peter Leonard, the editor of Eurasianet.
The US had earlier lobbied Uzbekistan to accept refugees and the authorities
to calculate on the possible flow of refugees as well,” Cancarini said.
“The final failure of the Turkmenistan- sponsored TAPI gas pipeline project across Afghanistan. The Taliban have reassured on the safety of a possible pipeline, but their lack of reliability (especially in the eyes of India) will make it impossible to develop the project,” Cancarini concluded.
China looks on
China has stayed away from the active phase of the Taliban’s takeover, but
has already reached out to the group acknowledging its inevitable control of the country. At the end of July, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stood shoulder to shoulder with visiting Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the political chief of the Taliban, in Tianjin, China for talks. As bne IntelliNews reported, the Taliban takeover is a headache for Beijing, which will try to contain the risks it presents.
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