Page 33 - bne magazine September 2021_20210901

bne September 2021 Afghanistan falls to the Taliban I 33
It read: “The C5+1 countries affirm their commitment to enhancing engagement through this regional diplomatic platform and seeking opportunities to strengthen connec- tivity between the Central and South Asian regions via trade, transport, and energy links. The C5+1 recognizes
that increased connectivity supports
its shared goal of a prosperous and secure Central Asia. Visionary ideas
for Central Asia’s economic growth
and closer ties to the economies of South Asia also reinforce the C5+1’s commitment to strengthening the region’s security and stability, including through Afghan peace negotiations”.
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan
In June, Kyrgyzstan announced that the electricity transmission project CASA-1000 that it is developing with Tajikistan to send power to Afghani- stan and Pakistan had been temporar- ily suspended because of coronacrisis impacts. The investment had anyway been moving along at a crawl so it’s not as if the pre-suspension schedule for project completion by 2023 had been entirely believable, but once ready to move forward the investment will need to seek security guarantees
from the Taliban the way that Turk- menistan will have to with TAPI.
In March, reports said Tajikistan
was aiming to supply 1,300 MW
to Pakistan via Afghanistan under CASA-1000 project. Under the origi- nal terms, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were meant to jointly supply 1,300 MW to Pakistan. Tajikistan has also said it is planning to export 75bn kWh of electricity via CASA-1000 over 15 years after the project completion.
In March, Afghanistan-based Tolo News reported officials as saying only 30% of the CASA-1000 construction on the Afghan section of the power transmission project was complete,
a progress level that was not in line with an optimistic pledge to complete the Afghan section within this year.
Iran
Once Donald Trump got cracking with his campaign to strangle Iran’s economy, it became rare to find any big Iranian investment projects not struggling against US sanctions, but one project that has enjoyed a sanctions-free emergence is the development of Iran’s only oceanic port, Chabahar on the Sea of Oman.
The Chabahar project, being jointly delivered by Iran and India, was seen as so important to Afghanistan’s economic prospects that US officials decided
to leave it alone. Its Pakistani rival, Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea, a short distance from Chabahar, is being jointly developed by Islamabad and China.
The objective with Chabahar is to give India an export gateway for Afghani- stan and Central Asia and the Central Asian ‘Stans’ an export hub for send- ing shipments globally. Of course, if the Taliban regime doesn’t play ball then at least the Central Asian parts of those objectives may hit a brick wall.
The Taliban and Shi’ite Iran have long been enemies but if some mutual accommodation can be found other projects to check for progress are the first rail link between Afghanistan and Iran – the Khaf-Herat railway, which when built could also facili- tate Turkey-Afghanistan trade via Iranian rail access – and wind farm projects on the Iranian-Afghan border. Analysts say that with 30,000 MWe potential of wind power capacity, the Iran-Afghanistan border area is one of the world’s most windy regions.
Russia moves to take control of Afghan talks after Taliban takeover
bne IntelIiNews
Russia moved to take control of talks with the Taliban following the fundamentalist insurgent group's sudden dramatic takeover of the country on August 15 by propos- ing to restart the Moscow format talks with the new leadership in Kabul.
“Russia stands for the need for an urgent transition to a national dialogue in
Afghanistan with the participation of all forces; Moscow format on Afghani- stan has the most prospects for creating conditions for restarting inter-Afghan dialogue,” Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said on August 19.
Russia is ready to restart the Moscow format talks but so far it has not
put forward any specific proposals,
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has invited all five Central Asian states, China, Pakistan, India, the United States, Iran, Russia and the Afghan conflicting parties to participate.
Lavrov said. The Kremlin is waiting for the Taliban to form a government with which it can negotiate.
"We also welcomed the Taliban's statement that they want to enter into dialogue with other political forces in Afghanistan. A meeting has already been announced with the participation of Abdullah Abdullah,
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