Page 65 - bne magazine September 2021_20210901

bne September 2021
Opinion 65
The long decline in living standards and an increase in the retirement age is manifesting far quicker in the young than in the older generations. Andrei Kolesnikov told Vedomosti that today’s state capitalism is viewed as unfair, be it wealth distribution, access to resources or justice. Their lives are less settled than the elder generations, many of whom inherited flats and property from the Soviet collapse.
On paper, at least, the KPRF has fertile grounds for cross-over appeal. Yet unlike other communist parties in the former Soviet bloc, the KPRF never moved away from its Soviet legacy. Those parties rebranded as ‘social democrats’ either by name change or assuming softer leftist policies; the KPRF did neither. In so doing it failed to respond genuinely to Russian’s social and economic injustices. All it did was mobilize its core voting bloc.
The destruction of Navalny’s political organisation and liberal schism aids the party somewhat, as well. With no genuine opposition or even social-democratic party to challenge them, systemic or otherwise, those voters either stay home through disillusionment, split their votes across the liberal opposition, or vote KPRF tactically.
HESS: Europe goes sectoral on Belarus
Maximilian Hess head of political risk at Hawthorn Advisors in London
Sectoral sanctions have arguably been the most significant innovation in the sanctions tool box over the last decade. Despite reticence over Russia, Brussels now leads the way on expanding their use beyond the Ukrainian conflict, targeting Belarus in response to its plane-jacking abduction of a dissident journalist. That may reshape the strategic landscape for Russian-EU competition.
Belarus and the European Union have fallen out – Minsk put the final nail in their tenuous relationship by withdrawing from the Eastern Partnership initiative and expelling its Ambassador at the end of June. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko – ‘re-elected’ in an extremely dubious vote last year that prompted mass protests and set off the latest chill in EU-Belarusian relations – appears to have no
The KPRF has an opportunity to redefine itself from this election onwards. It’s not exactly a now or never moment, but to morph into genuine opposition Russians might consider voting for, it needs to start offering those younger voters something they yearn for. If it doesn’t, they will just
as quickly look elsewhere. Despite increasing its overall vote share in 2018, it still fell in 18 regions – including Zyuganov’s home region.
Once the younger more energetic wing of the party outnumbers the party elite accustomed to a certain lifestyle
in the ‘fake opposition’, Zyuganov and others will have an unenviable decision to make. It won’t come before the Duma elections; there is simply too much to be done. There is also no guarantee Zyuganov, or others, will move the party in a new direction. He was very critical of Mikhail Gorbachev’s reforms and is no fan of Navalny. Street protests have been petitioned by the KPRF, though these likely won’t turn out numbers beyond the party faithful.
Don’t expect much, but there is wind in the red sails. The party is more interesting than it has been for years.
Sectoral sanctions are arguably the most significant innovation in the sanctions tool box, but the financial sanctions imposed on Minsk by Brussels are probably the most painful.
intention of stepping back. Recently he has openly threatened to foment a new EU migration crisis and paraded journalist Roman Protasevich, whose abduction from an intra-EU flight after Lukashenko forced it down with an invented terror threat pushed relations to a new nadir, in front of cameras with apparent signs of torture.
The EU has not taken these affronts on its eastern front quietly, in contrast to its normal ham-handed response to human rights violations and democratic dubiousness in neighbouring Russia or further afield, typically limited by its internal divisions.
Following the imposition of a host of new sanctions measures on the Belarusian government and related entities on June 24,
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