Page 15 - GEORptFeb21

Georgia’s GDP shrinks by 5.9% in Jan-Nov
mean that the forecasts need to be revised downwards further, it added. Recently, Geostat released its preliminary estimate for Q3 GDP growth in Georgia at 5.6%, 0.5pp less than what was forecast by ISET-PI.
“ The forecasting, based on past and current data, do not yet fully account for the negative impacts of the second wave of the COVID-19 outbreak on the national economy, thus, quarterly and annual predictions tend to notably overestimate the reality,” the think tank’s report reads.
Based on Novembers’s GDP rapid estimate data, the think tank said it expected annual growth in 2020 to be -5.5%, some 0.9pp lower than calculated in its previous prediction.
Georgia's real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 7.7% y/y in November and by 5.9% y/y in the first 11 months of the year, according to the rapid estimate data released by the statistics office Geostat.
The steep decline in November followed a gradual recovery seen over previous months (there was a 3.9% y/y drop in October).
Despite the overall shrinkage of growth, Geostat said growth was registered in manufacturing, financial and insurance activities, information and communication, water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team led by Mercedes Vera Martin, which conducted a Georgia virtual mission in November, maintained its 5% GDP decline forecast for Georgia in 2020 issued in October, but revised downwards its forecast for the recovery next year to 4.3% from 5%, citing the effects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on the region and the rising number of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Georgia.
In view of the latest estimate, Georgia’s economy may have suffered deeper losses in 2020.
15​ GEORGIA Country Report​ February 2021 ​ ​www.intellinews.com