Page 13 - RusRPTApr20

into the future.
Will Putin definitely run for election in 2024? This is open question with many analysts saying that Putin probably doesn't know either. He likes to keep his options open. The uncertainty will also prevent a successor war breaking out amongst the elite and prevent Putin from becoming a lame duck up to 2024.
Political expert Konstantin Kalachev said Putin is highly unlikely to leave the presidency at a moment of economic and political decline — he will only depart during a period of positivity. “He isn’t holding onto power, but rather onto his place in history,” said Kalachev.
2.4 Constitutional Reform presses ahead
Despite the global pandemic, constitutional reform in Russia continues apace. On March 11, the Duma approved the third reading of the reform, and the Federation Council greenlit the bill immediately thereafter. Two days later, all 85 of Russia’s regions approved the bill. Putin then signed it into law on March 14. Yesterday, after two days of review, the Constitutional Court declared the amendments constitutional. Now, only the nationwide vote, scheduled for April 22, remains.
The Constitutional Court justified each constitutional amendment, including limits on free speech about the secession of Russian territories, defining marriage as between a man and woman, and calling ethnic Russians the foundation of the state.
Most controversially, the Court justified the zeroing of Putin’s presidential terms by writing that it would not threaten the country’s democracy because Russia has a developed parliamentary and multi-party system, political competition, and an effective separation of powers. Furthermore, in order for Putin to remain president for two more terms, the populace would have to elect him.
Responding to the criticism that in 1998, the Constitutional Court effectively forbade Boris Yeltsin from seeking a third term by ruling that his term limits should be counted from 1991 when he was first elected not 1993 when the constitution was passed, the Court says the situation is not comparable. Then, article 81 on presidential terms was unchanged. Now, it is being amended.
On March 17 Putin signed a decree officially scheduling the constitutional reform vote for April 22. Meeting with the head of the Central Election Commission, he noted, however, that the vote is only worth having if the epidemiological situation allows. The health of Russia’s citizens is his #1 priority. And as the past weeks have shown globally, a lot can change between now and April 22.
If the referendum goes ahead the Kremlin risks a low turnout. But if it delays the economic situation will be worse, doubly so if it bungles the pandemic response.
2.5 Impact on Russia’s economy of coronavirus
Russia’s economy will contract by 1% in 2020, according to the latest forecast by the widely respected Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition (BOFIT).
Russia started this year with an official forecast for 1.9% growth. But the double whammy of an oil price shock following OPEC+ production cut deal
13 RUSSIA Country Report April 2020 www.intellinews.com