Page 26 - RusRPTApr20

2.11 Russian business and consumer confidence
Business confidence in Russia fell to a four year low even before the collapse of oil prices have tanked the ruble and threatened to derail the Kremlin’s 12 national projects that are supposed to “transform” the economy, according to a note release by IHS Markit on March 10.
Private sector firms are less optimistic regarding the outlook for output over the coming 12 months in February, according to the latest data from the IHS Markit Russia Business Outlook survey.
“The net balance of companies expecting an increase in activity (15%) is the joint-lowest since February 2016 (alongside June 2019) and below the long- run series average (30%). However, although signalling a diverging trend, the net balance is only slightly lower than the global average (+18%),” Markit said in a note.
Russia Inc got off to a strong start to this year with the stock market soaring after gaining nearly 50% year-on-year in2019. Fixed investment was also up for the first time in years. The revised fourth quarterly data shows a continued acceleration in investment growth rates as the 12 national projects got underway towards the end of the year. Growth in fixed investment came in above the consensus forecast of 1% in 2019, up 1.7% year-on-year, reports Rosstat.
Real incomes also expanded for the first time in almost six years up by 0.8% in 2019, accelerating from 0.1% seen in 2018 and beating the expectations of 0.1% of the Ministry of Economic Development, according to Rosstat. Consumption has returned as an economic growth driver, albeit a modest one.
26 RUSSIA Country Report April 2020 www.intellinews.com