Page 50 - RusRPTApr20

4.5.3 Retail sector dynamics
As the Watcom shopping index showed (section 2.10) retail sales collapsed at the very end of March, with volumes down 70% y/y. However, this collapse has had no time to show up in the official statistics yet.
Rosstat's data package for February showed retail sales turnover increased +4.7% y/y, on the back of real wages growth which remained strong at +6.5% y/y.
Adjusted for the leap year effect, this would imply a +1.1% y/y growth rate in February, according to estimates, a slowdown from +2.7% y/y in January.
VTBC’s preferred gauge of the growth momentum trend also shows a deceleration in both food and nonfood retail sales in m/m SA 3mma terms, with food printing roughly flat and nonfood retail sales slowing down to 0.14% m/m SA 3mma.
The Watcom shopping index tallied with Rosstat’s findings and the volume of foot traffic in Moscow’s malls up to week 11 remains the same as a year ago, affected only by seasonal fluctuations. The impact of coronavirus has yet to make themselves felt.
A slowdown in retail sales growth, adjusted for seasonality and the leap year effect, can be to some extent explained by the negative impulse from personal savings, as measured by the impulse from new personal banking deposits, whereas the credit impulse is currently neutral in terms of its effect on consumer spending.
50 RUSSIA Country Report April 2020 www.intellinews.com