Page 4 - AfrElec Week 01

AfrElec COMMENTARY AfrElec
South Africa remains vulnerable as loadshedding continues
Loadshedding continues as political promises are broken. Eskom and the government have failed to put forward workable solutions to the crisis, writes Richard Lockhart
SOUTH AFRICA
WHAT:
Loadshedding has been almost nightly this week
WHY:
Eskom has insufficient emergency capacity to cover closures at coal plants
WHAT NEXT:
The new CEO starts next week, but there are no clear solutions in the offing
ESKOM has continued to undertake nightly loadshedding this week, despite grand political promises before the New Year holiday that there would be none.
The company said on the evening of January 8 that there would be Stage 2 loadshedding from 21:00 until 08:00 on January 9.
This follows power cuts nearly every night this week, as the utility has a record amount of capacity offline for repairs and is unable to pro- vide enough pumped storage or diesel-fired capacity to fill the gaps.
While South African power cuts have almost become the norm during the current summer months, it is the political reaction to the events that is creating tensions in the country, and caus- ing major popular dissatisfaction with the gov- ernment and the ruling ANC.
For Eskom’s new CEO, André de Ruyter, it has been a baptism of fire and a real test for his reputation as a technocrat who could get things done.
Repeating pattern
Loadshedding on the nights of January 8 and 9 has followed a familiar pattern, whereby Eskom announces in the morning that no loadshedding is expected during the day, followed by more statements that there will be loadshedding at night.
The critical factor is a record-high unplanned capability loss factor (UCLF), which reached a record high of 14,096 MW on January 3, and stayed above 13,500 MW all week.
This UCLF is currently way above the 10,000- MW level seen before the current crisis. Eskom’s nameplate coal-fired generating capacity, which includes the UCLF figure, is 36,134 MW, while its total capacity is 44,134 MW. The extra is nuclear, gas, emergency diesel and pumped hydro.
Eskom’s policy is that the UCLF must be limited to 9,500 MW if loadshedding is to be avoided. Since mid-December, this figure has been substantially higher, reaching 14,096 MW on January 3 and falling to 13,119 MW on Jan- uary 6.
Lack of resilience
Earlier in the week, Eskom started loadshedding
restrictions on January 4, despite promises from South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Eskom management before Christmas that there would be none between December 15 and Jan- uary 15.
Eskom said on January 4 that a conveyer belt failure at the Medupi power plant would require Stage 2 loadshedding, where 2,000 MW is taken offline, for eight hours from 22:00 on January 4 to 06:00 on January 5. The period was then extended to 05:00 on January 6.
The company then stopped loadshedding at the start of the working week, although it said that the system was “vulnerable and unpredict- able,” and still had 13,119 MW of its installed generating capacity offline.
Eskom has repeatedly said this week that it had to cut supplies because its pumped storage and diesel-fired open cycle stations were unable to meet demand during the eight-hour period. Eskom has taken this capacity offline for main- tenance ahead of the coming week.
This is a prime example of Eskom implement- ing emergency operational and maintenance measures to keep a wide variety of power plants open and generating. However, any breakdowns at key plants such as Medupi results in the system not being able to cope, resulting in loadshedding.
This lack of resilience in the generating and supply networks means that Eskom cannot guar- antee stable supplies to industrial and domestic customers.
Loadshedding promises
The South African public is well-used to Eskom’s failure to meet its loadshedding promises.
Ramaphosa’s mid-December promise of no loadshedding came after weeks of serious out- ages that threatened to damage business and hold back economic growth.
The government had to implement emer- gency measures after a failure at the Medupi power plant and problems with coal supplies to some of Eskom’s other coal-fired power stations.
The president said that at times Eskom would only be able to stabilise the national grid and end loadshedding by March.
Since December various reasons have been aired to explain the high level of loadshedding,
The critical issue is a record high unplanned capability loss factor (UCLF), which reached a record high of 14,096MW on January 3
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w w w. N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 01 09•January•2020