Page 17 - UKRRptJune18

2.4 Ukraine faces danger of default and devaluation
Ukrainian experts see a growing threat of default on Ukraine’s sovereign obligations and a devaluation of the domestic currency , ahead of the approaching presidential and parliamentary elections, according to a reports published by Kyiv-based think-tank VoxUkraine and the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) on May 22.
The current $17.5bn support programme agreed between Kyiv and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expires in March 2019 , just before Ukraine enters elections’ long cycle: presidential elections in March next year and parliamentary elections in October.
"But Ukraine’s authorities don’t have time until March next year as heavy payments start soon," the document reads. "Indeed, Ukraine faces more than $10bn of external public debt repayments in 2018 and 2019, including principal and interest on external debt. Repayments to official creditors, such as the IMF, the World Bank or the US, account for almost two-thirds of this amount."
Though the Ukrainian authorities had enough resources to make repayments in the first quarter of 2018, external sovereign debt coming due until end-2019 amounts to sizable $8.5bn, accounting for almost half of central bank’s international reserves.
According to official data, Ukraine's foreign exchange reserves rose by $229mn , or 1.3% month-on-month to $18.421bn in April.
17 UKRAINE Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com