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EIA sets out 2020 vision
US
The EIA’s reference case sees the US remaining a net energy exporter over the next 30 years.
THE US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its Annual Energy Outlook for 2020 last week, outlining its expectations for how energy trends will play out over the next 30 years.
e reference case set out by the EIA pro- jects that renewables will be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation between now and 2050, spurred by continued declines in the costs of solar and wind technology. Renewables are forecast to account for 38% of electricity generation by 2050, double their 19% share in 2019. Solar is anticipated to contribute the most to this growth, more than tripling from 14% of total renewable generation in 2019 to 46% by 2050.
e EIA’s base case also has US energy con- sumption growing slowly, by 0.3% per year on average, owing to constant increases in energy e ciency. Meanwhile, the country’s oil and gas production is forecast to keep expanding thanks to technological advances, allowing the US to
remain a net energy exporter over the next 30 years.
US crude production is forecast to keep hit- ting new highs until 2022, and then remain near 14.0mn barrels per day (bpd) until 2045 under the EIA’s reference case. The agency projects that US dry gas output will reach 45tn cubic feet (1.3tn cubic metres) by 2050. e further devel- opment of tight oil and shale gas resources sup- ports growth in these fuels.
The EIA’s outlook also includes eight side cases in which key model assumptions are changed. This includes two new cases – one assuming a high renewables cost and the other a low renewables cost. e high oil price case has the price of Brent crude, in 2019 dollars, reaching $183 per barrel by 2050, while the reference case puts the price at $105 per barrel and this falls to $46 per barrel in the low oil price case.
e agency looks at di erent levels of oil and gas supply, as well as low and high eco- nomic growth.™
PROJECTS & COMPANIES
Death toll from Chesapeake well explosion rises to three
TEXAS
LOCAL media in Texas have reported that a third person has died following an explosion at a well site operated by Chesapeake Energy near Deanville, in Burleson County.
An early inspection report relating to the incident said that workers had been carrying out workover operations at the well when a surge of natural gas ignited on January 29, with 11 people present at the site. Alongside Chesapeake, oil- eld services rms Eagle Pressure Control and CC Forbes – a unit of Forbes Energy Services – had workers at the site when the explosion occurred. What caused the gas to ignite remains under investigation.
One worker died at the scene, while three men were taken to hospitals in Houston and Austin. However, two of the three hospitalised workers succumbed to their injuries, with one dying on January 30, and another on February 1. e fourth man was still hospitalised as of the start of this week.
e rst two victims worked for Eagle, while the third worked for Forbes, according to the Houston Chronicle.
Reports from January 30, the day a er the incident, said the re had been extinguished and air monitoring indicated no risk to public health and the environment.
In a statement this week, the US Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board said it had deployed a team to investigate the fatal accident. The federal investigation will run alongside ones being conducted by state and local authorities.
According to Reuters, the incident marks the deadliest US oil eld accident since January 2018, when an explosion at a Patterson-UTI Energy rig in Oklahoma killed ve people.
The January 29 explosion overshadowed Chesapeake’s preliminary fourth-quarter results, which had been released on the same day. e company reported that it had reduced its debt by $900mn, met expected 2019 production numbers and reduced per-well costs during the nal quarter of 2019. e company’s aver- age estimated fourth-quarter production was 476,000-478,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd).™
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