Page 3 - AsiaElec Week 24

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec
RENEWABLES: China joined by US as key power game changer in 2018
BP’s Statistical Review warns of rising carbon emissions, but the persistent strength of fossil fuels is the biggest brake on green development, writes Richard Lockhart
ASIA
WHAT:
Power and carbon emissionsbothgrewin 2018
WHY:
Chinese economic growth drove what BP called a surprising rise in power consumption growth
WHAT NEXT:
BP calls emissions growth unsustainable, but the oil majors’ strategy of prioritising gas and clean coal over renewables creates powerful competition for green energy sources
GLOBAL carbon dioxide emissions increased by 2% in 2018, the fastest growth seen since 2010, BP said in its 2018 Statistical Review, prompting a gloom-laden warning from the company that currentenergytrendswere“unsustainable.”
In its annual snapshot of energy gures, BP executives identi ed China, India and the US as the dominant drivers of a 2.9% rise in primary global energy consumption – they together accounted for around two thirds of this increase – as well as pushing up emissions.
In terms of industrial sectors, power genera- tion was also picked out as being the least able to reduce emissions, despite the expansion of green power sources such as solar and wind.
It was a year for records. In the US, primary energy demand grew by 3.5%, the fastest growth seen for 30 years and in sharp contrast to the declining trend seen over the previous 10 years.
On a global scale, the 2.9% rise in primary energy consumption was almost double the 10-year average of 1.5%, and the fastest since 2010.
e US contributed 15% of global emissions, with China creating 28% and India 7%, making them the world’s three stand-out polluters.
Power growth
As well as concerns about emissions, the report highlighted that global power demand grew by 3.7%, which is one of the strongest growth rates seen for 20 years, absorbing around half of the growth in primary energy.
e developing world continued to drive the vast majority (81%) of this growth, led by China and India who together accounted for around two thirds of the increase in power demand.
The particularly strong growth of power demand in 2018 also owed much to the US, where power demand grew by a bumper 3.7%, boosted by weather e ects.
Overall, however, industrialisation and elec- tri cation in the developing world, dominated by India and China is driving growing primary energy growth.
Meanwhile, consumption of renewable energy grew by 14.5%, but this still accounted for only around a third of the increase in total power generation. Coal and gas accounted for
roughly a third each.
In the renewables sector, net additions of
solar and wind capacity were worth a combined 140GW,whilenetgrowthingenerationrosefor solarto130TWhbutactuallyfellforwindto140 TWh from 170 TWh in 2017.
What this means is that wind and solar are expanding, but on a global scale they are nding it di cult to win market share from coal and gas
In Asia
China’s total power generation rose by 7.7% to 7,112 TWh, while India’s rose by 6.2% to 1,561 TWh. By contrast, developed Japan saw just a 0.1% rise in generation to 1,052 TWh.
In China’s power mix, renewables accounted for 634 TWh, a 29% rise on 2017, while India’s green output rose by 27% to 121 TWh.
China’s solar output rose by 50.7% as major solar utility-scale projects came online, while India’s rose by 43%. China’s wind output grew by 24%, with India at 15%.
Green energy accounted for 8.9% of Chi- na’s power output, up from 7.4% in 2017, while India’s green share rose from 6.5% to 7.7%.
ese increments suggest that renewables is the fastest growing generation fuel China and India, but only just.
Chinese growth
China’s growth gures surprised BP, pointing to a recovering in economic growth and industrial activity in BP’s view.
BP group chief economist Spencer Dale said that the slowdown seen in 2017 in key Chinese industrial sectors such as iron, steel and cement, which account for around a quarter of China’s energy consumption, actually reversed, espe- cially in the second half of 2018.
e report noted that Chinese iron output grew by 5% between 2016 and 2018, while steel output rose by 7%, compared to slight contrac- tions in 2014-16.
China’s oil consumption grew by 5.3%, or 685,000 barrels per day, while gas demand grew by 43 billion cubic metres per year, or 18%, the third largest behind Kazakhstan and Iraq.
Dale said that robust industrial activity, as well as the government’s coal-to-gas replacement
The US contributed 15% of global emissions, with China creating 28% and India 7%, making them the world’s three stand-out polluters
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