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Investment: % of GDP (%) 24.4 (Jun 2021)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD mn) 74,915.40 (Jun 2021)
Gross National Product (USD mn) 833,301.44 (2020)
Gross Savings Rate (%) 36.9 (Mar 2021)
Source: CEIC Data
3.2 Macroeconomic outlook
World Bank upgrades growth projections for Iran
IMF sticks with 2.5% growth forecast for Iran in 2021
The World Bank has upgraded its real GDP growth projections for Iran, anticipating estimated GDP gains of 3.1% in 2021, 2.4% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023.
Six months ago, it was predicting rates of 1%, 0.2% and -0.1% for these years, respectively.
The new data is presented in the latest World Bank Global Economic Prospects report, published on January 11.
Following then US president Donald Trump’s reintroduction of heavy sanctions on Tehran in May 2018, Iran endured a bitter recession that lasted more than two years. If the ongoing Vienna nuclear deal talks lead to the US Biden administration lifting the sanctions, growth projections for Iran could be upgraded further.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest World Economic Outlook published on October 13 has stuck with its forecast for a 2.5% expansion in Iran’s economic growth. The Fund also predicted that figure in April.
However, the IMF now calculates 2020 GDP growth in Iran was 3.4%, up from its previous suggestion of 1.5%. For 2022, it anticipates 2.0%.
The outlook also said that Iran’s consumer price inflation looks set to decrease from a projected 39.3% in 2021 to 27.5% next year. It estimated that consumer prices rose by 36.4% in 2020.
The Fund saw Iran’s unemployment rate as creeping up from 9.6% in 2020, to a forecast 10% in 2021 and a projected 10.5% in 2022.
As regards Iran’s current account balance, the IMF calculated that it would
16 IRAN Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com