Page 4 - IRANRptFeb22

1.0 Executive summary
The World Bank in its latest Global Economic Prospects published on January 11 has upgraded its real GDP growth projections for Iran, anticipating estimated GDP gains of 3.1% in 2021, 2.4% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook published on October 13 has stuck with its forecast for a 2.5% expansion in Iran’s economic growth in 2021. The Fund also predicted that figure in April. However, the IMF now calculates 2020/2021 Persian calendar year (ended March 20) GDP growth in Iran was 3.4%, up from its previous suggestion of 1.5%. For 2022, it anticipates 2.0%.
This would mean Iran has emerged from the long and bitter three-year recession that set in around May 2018 following then US president Donald Trump’s reintroduction of heavy sanctions on Tehran. Officials have credited higher exports and a general realignment of the economy, necessitated by the impact of heavy US sanctions, with securing the new growth.
The US on February 4 restored sanctions waivers to Iran that will clear the way for international nuclear cooperation projects. The move was made as the Vienna talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, or JCPOA, between Tehran and six major powers enter what’s likely to be the final stage. Iran’s foreign ministry quickly welcomed the gesture, but said that it “is not sufficient”.
The waivers, revoked by former US president Trump, allowed Russian, Chinese and European companies to carry out non-proliferation work to essentially make it more difficult for Iran to use its nuclear sites for weapons development.
The US and Iran have held eight rounds of indirect talks in Vienna since April aimed at reinstating the JCPOA that lifted major sanctions imposed on Tehran in exchange for restrictions on its nuclear programme aimed at ensuring it is kept entirely civilian. As Iran has not yet agreed to face to face talks with the US in the Austrian capital, officials of the three European states signed up to the nuclear act as intermediaries between the Iranian and American delegations.
Western diplomats remain anxious that Iran’s progress in nuclear advancement means there is now only a very narrow window to return to the JCPOA. Iran has always insisted it has no intention to develop a nuclear weapon, but its uranium enrichment knowhow has advanced considerable since Trump pulled the US out of the nuclear deal, prompting Iran to gradually stop abiding by the JCPOA’s terms.
Iran is wary that any promises made by the Biden administration as part of the restoration of the JCPOA could be rolled back by the next American president.
Tehran and other cities around Iran are suffering from what officials say is the “sixth wave” of the virus in the country. Tehran Governor Mohsen Mansouri on February 1 announced the closure of all kindergarten and
4 IRAN Country Report February 2022 www.intellinews.com