Page 28 - UKRRptNov20

5.0​ External Sector & Trade
Balance of payments
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Current account balance, USD bln
-12.8
-1.7
-3
-10.2
-14.3
-16.5
-4.6
-0.2
-3.5
-2.4
-4.5
-4.7
% GDP
-7.1%
-1.5%
-2.2%
-6.3%
-8.1%
-9.0%
-3.4%
-0.2%
-3.7%
-2.2%
-3.4%
-3.2%
Financial account balance, USD bln
9.7
-12
8
7.8
10.1
18.6
-9.1
0.6
4.7
5
7.4
4
% GDP
5.4%
-10.2%
5.9%
4.8%
5.8%
10.1%
-6.8%
0.6%
5.0%
4.5%
5.6%
2.7%
FDI net, USD bln
9.9
4.7
5.8
7
7.2
4.1
0.3
3
3.3
2.6
2.4
2.5
% of GDP
5.5%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
4.1%
2.2%
0.2%
3.3%
3.5%
2.3%
1.8%
1.7%
Gross NBU reserves (eop), USD bln
31.5
26.5
34.6
31.8
24.5
20.4
7.5
13.3
15.5
18.8
20.8
20.5
Monetary and banking indicators
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018E
2019E
Source: SP Advisors
5.1​ External sector overview
Through September, Ukraine’s exports of goods were down 5.6% y/y, to $35bn​, reports the press service of the State Customs Service. Imports fell 11.8% y/y, to $38bn. Due to the sharp drop in imports, the trade deficit in goods fell in half, to $2.9bn.
For the first nine months of this year, Ukraine’s trade with China -- $10.6bn – was nearly double trade with Russia -- $5.4.
Ukraine’s external goods trade deficit shrank to $267mn in August from $817mn in the prior month, ​the State Statistics Service said in its preliminary report published on October 15.
The seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit amounted to $394mn (vs. a $517mn deficit in July) amid 5.0% m/m growth in adjusted exports and a 1.6% m/m increase in adjusted imports.
Goods exports slid 1.6% y/y in August to $4.2bn (vs. a 13.0% y/y drop in July). The decline was mostly driven by falling exports of ferrous metals (-7.5% y/y) and mineral products (-20.7%) y/y. At the same time, grain exports advanced 13.4% y/y and machinery exports improved 14.0% y/y.
Goods imports fell 14.3% y/y to $4.5bn in August (vs. a 17.3% y/y decline in July). In particular, imports of energy products plummeted 47.0% y/y, machinery dropped 19.6% y/y, and chemical imports slid 9.9% y/y. At the same time, imports of foods advanced 18.3% y/y.
In 8M20, the goods trade deficit amounted to $2.4bn (vs. $5.9bn in 8M19). Goods exports slid 6.6% y/y, while goods imports dropped 14.6% y/y.
​Our expectations proved correct that the decline in Ukraine’s exports will decelerate through the year end ​due to a better performance of grain exports​.
28​ UKRAINE Country Report​ November 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com