Page 52 - UKRRptNov20

8.4 ​International ratings
Ukraine - Rating agency
as of May 1, 2018
last change
Moodys (USD rating)
Caa1 (S)
21/12/18
Fitch (USD rating)
B- (S)
22/7/16
S&P
B- (S)
25/9/15
Ukraine’s credit ratings have been improving but the country is still rated junk by the three main agencies.
Moody’s rates Ukraine at Caa1​ with stable outlook on its foreign currency debt. The local debt is also rated at Caa1.
Moody’s last upgraded Ukraine from Caa2 (Positive) in August 2017 as the country emerged from an economic meltdown that year. The lowest rating the country had was Ca (Negative) in March 2015 in the wake of the Euromaidan protests that ousted president Viktor Yanukovych. The highest the country has scored was B1 (positive) in August 2008 as the entire region boomed before the global financial crisis struck that autumn.
Fitch rates Ukraine at B-​ on its foreign currency debt with no outlook indicated. The local debt is also rated at B- (none).
Fitch has become more cautious on Ukraine having removed its positive outlook call in December 2018. But the ratings have general recovered from Fitch “restricted default” rating in October 2015, following the Maidan events. The highest rating the country has had from Fitch was a BB- (positive) first awarded in May 2005 and again in October 2006, during a year-long investment frenzy when foreign banks bought up banks in the country believing the country was about to take off.
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) rates both Ukraine’s foreign and local debt at B-
with stable outlook.
S&P last upgraded Ukraine’s rating from Caa2 (positive) in August 2017. The rating nadir was Ca (negative) awarded in March 2015 following the Maidan events. Its zenith was B1 (positive) awarded in August 2008 at the apex of the region-wide boom.
8.5 ​Fixed income
Yields on 12-year Ukrainian government Eurobonds have risen by 100 basis points​, to 8%, in the last week fo September. Timothy Ash writes from London: “It’s signaling that investors are beginning to get a bit worried about the future course of reform in Ukraine, the future of IMF relations, local elections, and I guess potential for cabinet changes... I think the IMF is of the view that these structural reform issues are critical to Ukraine’s long term development and the success of this program and future programs...the Fund will adopt a ‘prove we are wrong by your actions’ approach before agreeing to a new program review mission.”
“[Ukraine’s] current team needs to look at the widening of Ukraine’s credit spreads, or increased costs of borrowing, as a reflection that the market does
52​ UKRAINE Country Report​ November 2020 ​ ​www.intellinews.com