Page 4 - AsiaElec Week 10

AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec
3% decline in coal generation not enough to meet Paris targets
2019 saw a fall in coal use and emissions, but not enough is being done by global generators. Asia and the US need to follow Europe’s lead on renewables, writes Richard Lockhart
GLOBAL
WHAT:
Global coal-fired electricity generation fell by 3% in 2019
WHY:
Coal used rapidly declined in the EU and the US, offsetting a slight rise in Asia
WHAT NEXT:
The 2019 performance must improve if global climate change targets are to be met
GLOBAL coal-fired electricity generation fell by 3% in 2019, leading to a 2% decrease in CO2 power sector emissions, according to a new report from UK clean energy think-tank, Ember, formerly Sandbag.
The 259TWh fall in coal output was driven by its rapid decline in the EU and the US. Both declining generation output and the fall in CO2 emissions are the biggest since 1990.
However, the decline was offset by rising coal generation in China, which for the first time was responsible for half of global coal generation.
Similarly, any decline in US emissions caused by the decline of coal was undermined by the use of shale gas in US power generation.
China saw the biggest increase in coal genera- tion, 77 TWh (2%), pushing it to 50.2% of global coal generation. Power demand in China grew by 4.7%, meaning that the growth in wind, solar and hydro could not displace coal’s expanding market share and were insufficient to meet total rising demand.
Finally, emissions grew by 2% as renewables could not keep pace with rising power demand. What this means is that the world cannot
merely maintain but also needs to accelerate coal’s decline if it is to meet its Paris Agreement climate targets.
“Without concerted policymaker efforts to boost wind and solar, we will fail to meet climate targets,” said Ember electricity analyst Dave Jones.
“China’s growth in coal, and to some extent gas, is alarming but the answers are all there. The EU leaps out with 18% of electricity now coming from wind and solar, but with the US on 11%, China at 9% and India at 8% – the race is on,” he added.
The current oil crisis and decline in industrial activity in key economies such as China are cre- ating new uncertainty for future movements in power demand and resulting CO2 emissions.
New normal
Yet the report warned that coal’s continued decline in future was not guaranteed, saying that decreasing coal generation was not yet the “new normal.” Coal’s fall and the rise of solar were the result of many one-off factors, the report found.
These included low economic growth and the mild winter month in Europe, the 73TWh switch from coal to gas in the EU and nuclear restarts in Asia.
Indeed, the 3% drop in coal in 2019 is not enough to meet energy transition benchmarks, such as the IPCC’s 1.5 degree median scenario, which requires an 11% per year fall until 2030, or the IEA’s Sustainable Development Scenario, which calls for 4% per year to 2025.
Indeed, the report identified Germany as the only one of the top 10 coal-generating countries, which account for 87% of coal generation, to make a policy commitment to a coal phase-out date. Even that, at 2038, does not met the 1.5 degree requirements.
Asia
Asia, especially, must do more and urgently to meet the UN’s global climate goals.
Coal’s share of generation across Southeast Asia grew, led by Vietnam with 34%, the Philip- pines (+12%), Indonesia (+11%) and Malaysia (+5%).
There were better results in South Korea (-5%), Japan (-4%) and India (-3%).
Indeed, India saw coal generation shrink for
the first time ever, a major landmark event, as Without
demand fell as the economy contracted in the second half of the year.
The 3% decrease in coal generation also saw emissions fall by 3%. The report said low GDP growth of 0.9%, a bumper hydro year and a nuclear pick-up had enabled the fall in coal.
concerted policymaker efforts to boost
Solar and wind also saw growth, with a wind and solar,
record 12GW of solar capacity installed. The report forecast that renewables would play a more prominent role in future in offsetting coal generation. The country must also stop building new coal capacity if this year’s coal decline is to be repeated.
Renewables
For solar and wind, it was a solid year, with com- bined output rising by 15% in 2019, generating 8% of the world’s electricity. However, no records were broken anywhere, and the 15% rate was the lowest this century as growth proves more difficult.
we will fail to meet climate targets
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 10 11•March•2020