Page 6 - AsiaElec week 23
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AsiaElec COMMENTARY AsiaElec
but that the government remained concerned over EGAT’s demand forecast modelling.
e Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has only awarded two LNG import licences to PTT and EGAT. As ailand’s only two import- ers, EPAC ordered PTT and EGAT to revise their LNG import forecasts for 2020 to ensure the market would not be oversupplied.
“ e ministry wants to make sure that the shipment volume will not be an obstacle to PTT’s volume, compelling the ‘take-or-pay’ sit- uation in the future,” the minister added.
EPAC also ordered the ERC to open up third-party access (TPA) to PTT’s gas terminal and pipeline in order to build con dence that EGAT’s LNG imports would improve overall national energy security.
Gas security in focus
The government’s doubling down on greater co-operation between the country’s largest gas supplier and consumer is unsurprising. The ai economy’s mounting dependency on gas has unnerved energy planners for a number of years now.
Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who was re-elected on June 11, has described the coun- try’s mounting gas demand as a national security issue. In May, Siri said LNG imports would soar ve-fold to 23 million tonnes per year by 2037 from 4.4 million tonnes in 2018.
But between depressed domestic production, dwindling supplies from Myanmar, mounting local gas and power demand and ai protests over proposed coal-fired power plants, Thai- land’s need for LNG is only likely to increase.
EPAC has ordered EPPO to hold nationwide public hearings to dra a gas plan until 2037. Authorities are worried over a projected decline in natural gas production from Gulf of ailand elds, which are estimated to account for around 60% of the country’s power generation.
While state-owned PTT has earmarked US$4
billion for domestic gas pipeline and LNG termi- nal projects during 2019-23, the company is also investing in bringing new gas production online in Myanmar.
Outcome
ailand needs more gas and is investing in new import capacity as well as working to ramp up production from Myanmar. At the same time, however, government authorities are slowing EGAT’s efforts to secure gas volumes citing demand concerns.
It is a somewhat confusing picture. The go-slow approach over the power producer’s rst LNG import deal, however, is more likely driven by concerns over EGAT and PTT’s ability to work together in a limited import infrastructure environment than by demand realities.
EGAT is working to seal its rst deal for LNG, but will need to have cargoes delivered to PTT’s terminal a er much-discussed plans for a new oating storage and regasi cation unit (FSRU) have failed to progress. PTT, meanwhile, has also seen its plans for a new 7.5 million tonne per year terminal stall.
With this in mind, it could be several years before EGAT has its own infrastructure to han- dle LNG imports, forcing it to rely on PTT sac- ri cing terminal capacity. As such, Bangkok is understandably eager to ensure that PTT and EGAT can co-operate in tapping existing infra- structure before it gives the latter free rein to line up long-term LNG supplies.
e government wants greater competition in the country’s gas market, which suggests that EGAT’s deal with Petronas is unlikely to be dragged out for much longer. While both state companies will need to align their import mod- els in order to better optimise infrastructure in the short term, this is not a long term solution and suggests that progress is likely to be made on deliver new import terminal capacity within the next year.
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w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m Week 23 13•June•2019
