Page 18 - IRANRptSep18

Concern about the rial’s nosedive and further vulnerability has prompted ordinary Iranians to pour money into non-cash assets. Tehran real estate prices are substantially up and Iran’s stock market has jumped 17% since the end of May to a record high, Reuters reported. Prices of gold coins, meanwhile, have also risen sharply.
5.1.1 current account dynamics
Iran current account, USD mn
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Balance of payments overall
-947
21,436
12,213
13,189
8,561
2,233
Current account balance
27,554
58,507
23,362
25,105
15,861
1,237
16,388
Current account balance: % of GDP
5.66
10.08
3.87
5.43
3.12
0.32
3.92
Current account: Goods
37,330
67,779
28,563
29,326
21,392
5,354
20,843
Current account: Exports
112,788
145,806
97,296
92,910
86,471
64,597
83,978
Current account: Imports
75,458
78,027
68,734
63,584
65,079
52,419
63,135
Current account: Services
-10,040
-9,771
-7,359
-6,820
-6,985
-4,472
-5,941
Current account: Income
79
93
1,649
2,034
943
241
928
Current account: transfers
185
406
509
565
511
427
558
Capital and financial account
-24,296
40,741
-22,161
-22,510
-8,002
113
/
Errors and omissions
-3,259
-17,766
-1,2j01
-2,595
-5,635
-1,350
-5,766
Source: CEIC, Central Bank of Iran
Iran’s current account surplus climb to $17bn in 2017
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in March that the government held $112bn of foreign assets and reserves. It also indicated that Iran was running a current account surplus. The figures imply that Iran might withstand the sanctions without an external payments crisis.
Iran reported a current account surplus of $15.8bn in March 2018, compared with a surplus of $16.4bn in the previous year, according to CEIC data. Iran’s current account surplus rose to 3.9% of GDP in 2017 from 0.3% in 2016.
5.1.2 Import/export dynamics
Baghdad to haggle with Washington over which Iran sanctions it must observe
Iraq’s economy is so closely linked to Iran that Baghdad is going to ask Washington for permission to ignore some US sanctions on its neighbour, Iraqi government and central bank officials were quoted as saying by Reuters on August 21.
Baghdad is in a difficult position as it views both Iran and the US as allies. Crucial supplies come from the former and the US provides security assistance and training.
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi initially said Baghdad would respect all the US sanctions—designed to throttle Iran’s economy to a degree that will force it to enter negotiations on its role in the conflict-torn Middle East—but then faced heavy criticism from rivals for saying so.
18 IRAN Country Report September 2018 www.intellinews.com