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bne February 2022 Contents I 3
COVER FEATURE
35 Ukraine – no war today, and
probably none in future
37 Can Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe?
39 War in Ukraine would send global grain prices soaring, threatening a possible repeat of the Arab Spring
42 OUTLOOK 2022 SPECIAL FOCUS
54 Kazakhstan’s Tokayev slates ‘Nazarbayev’ oligarchs in populist attempt to turn page on country’s unrest
55 CSTO comes out of the shadows for the first time
57 Fugitive banker Ablyazov lays claim to filling opposition vacuum in Kazakhstan as president says forces will shoot-to-kill
58 Fake news? Conflicting reports of shooting in Almaty as Russian and Kazakh gov-ernments appear to manipulate reporting for own agendas
61 Kazakhstan upheaval impacts country’s banks, bonds, equities and uranium and oil industries
62 Masimov’s downfall, from the corridors of power to a jail cell
64 Kazakh and Belarusian CSTO peacekeepers spotted wearing blue UN peacekeeping helmets
CENTRAL EUROPE
66 wiiw slashes Emerging Europe growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023
68 Emerging Europe M&A soars by 55% to €94bn in 2021
70 Lithuania looks for quality, not quantity in fintech
SOUTHEAST EUROPE
72 Spread of Omicron pushes coronavirus infections to all-time highs in parts of Southeast Europe
73 Top EU court says Bulgaria must issue ID to baby girl with two mothers
74 Erdogan follows latest ‘unbelievable’ rate cut with 50% boost to Turkey’s mini- mum wage
76 Albanian police use tear gas to disperse protest at opposition Democrats’ HQ
77 Kosovo announces plans to apply for EU membership
EASTERN EUROPE
78 Healthy eating and “humanocracy”– the making of Russia’s biggest food brand
81 Belarus’ opposition leader Tikhanovskaya calls on the people to hold firm in an emotional New Year’s address
EURASIA
82 Kazakhstan: New Baikonur launch facility to be named after Nazarbayev
83 Tensions as US imposes more sanctions on Iran ahead of next Vienna nuclear talks
84 In first ICJ rulings, Armenia largely comes out on top of Azerbaijan
OPINION
86 Russia won’t invade Ukraine. This crisis is more serious than that
89 Alienating Russia and the western-made Frankenstein monster
91 The West’s tricky relationship with Kazakhstan gets more complicated
93 Death of the Soviet Union – reassessing the causes of the Soviet demise
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