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Eurasia
May 11, 2018 www.intellinews.com I Page 20
15,000 left Armenia in 2017 alone. The country has a population of some 3mn people, but the diaspora is estimated at between 7mn-10mn ac- cording to various estimates. Armenia actually has the highest emigration rate in the South Caucasus, according to United Nations statistics. The Armenian population may fall to 2mn over the next 30 years, reaching the point of no return.
Corruption is a major driver of this trend. Anti- graft watchdog Transparency International’s Cor- ruption Perception Index 2016ranks Armenia as 113th of 176 countries, which makes it one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Corruption is a nationwide handicap for a country with an an- cient history and a vibrant youth; talented people are simply unable to realise their potential.
In the World Economic Forum’s Network Readi- ness Index, which measures a country’s infor- mation technology-readiness, Armenia ranks 58th–better than its progressive neighbour Geor- gia. Similarly, in the Global Innovation Business 2017 ranking, Armenia performs better than its neighbours, coming in at 59th. But once again, all the achievements are offset by the corruption and injustice.
Injustice and inequality are currently the predomi- nant themes of Armenian society. Not only are the people and political elite divided, but the exclu- sion happens in every social group. In the World Economic Forum’s Global Gender Gap survey, Ar- menia ranks 102nd out of 144 countries, a true offence to the nation taking into account how gender-balanced Armenian society has been in the past. Thus it should come as no surprise that Pashinian was able to tap a deep well of resent- ment and was widely supported by the female part of the population, whose economic participation has been falling during recent years.
Corruption is a cancer, but another driver of dissent has been the underperformance of
the economy. There are many arguments to justify the poor economic outcome. Indeed, the Armenian economy suffered heavily during the
world financial crisis of 2008 and was among the most affected countries globally: GDP contracted by around 14%; regional imbalances created additional shocks and there was no relief for ordinary citizens.
It is also a fact that according to data on GDP per capita income (in PPP terms) Armenia is one of the poorest countries of the former Soviet Union. Its economy underperforms even when com- pared to its immediate neighbours Azerbaijan and Georgia, neither of which are particularly prosper- ous. That creates a mood-lowering cross-border inequality.
According to World Bank Open Data, in 2016 GDP per capita income in Armenia reached $8,800 while it was $10,000 in Georgia and $17,200
in Azerbaijan. In the Legatum Prosperity In-
dex 2017’s sub-component of Economic Quality, Armenia scores 114th out of 149 countries. Such a dire state of affairs would cause instability in any other country, even one with better institu- tional foundations.
Looking at all these figures, it is no wonder that Sargsyan was ousted by a popular uprising that gained such a head of steam. Pashinian appeared at the right time, in the right place and, armed with his personal charisma and open mind, he had the right message. It is not rocket science to understand what the country needs now. Armenia must seek a way out of the developmental crisis in which it has been languishing for years. Fight- ing corruption, cutting governmental red tape, re- moving the informal controls over businesses and delivering equal justice for all can ensure Armenia turns into one of the most successful countries in the wider region. And this can happen very fast if the politicians will only allow it.
Kakha Baindurashvili is an economist and former finance minister of Georgia. Currently, he works for non-governmental international organisation World SME Forum (www.worldsmeforum.org).