Page 27 - RPTRusFeb17

4.0 Real Economy
Russia - Main Macro Indicators 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual GDP (y/y)
4.5 4.26 3.41 1.34 0.64 -3.7
GDP (per capita)
10675 13323.88 14078.83 15531 13873 9055
GDP: Final consumption expenditure, (local currency)
32096141.19 37208226.76 42205094.98 47163119.92 56336400 59116800
GDP: Gross fixed investment capital formation, (local currency)
10472700 13982500 15223900 15077000 16436100 16812800
GDP: Exports, (local currency)
13529300 16940900 18413100 18936600 21464200 23606500
GDP: Imports, (local currency)
9789600 12164400 13848100 15014100 16296400 17095200
Source: Rosstat
4.1 Industrial production
Rosstat industrial data for January, as well as revised data for the past two years, shows an exit from recession gaining momentum , although sub-sector performance remains uneven.
Initial data points to 2.3% YoY growth for January, following 3.2% growth for December - solid performance, but slightly behind predictions. Alfa Bank economists comment that their forecast that an austere fiscal policy and high interest rates would squeeze growth seems incorrect.
Following the recent upwards revision of 2015 GDP recession, Rosstat also revised industrial output figures. Overall in 2016, industrial output expanded by 1.3% versus the previous estimate of 1.1% y/y, while the 3.4% y/y decline posted in 2015 is now estimated at only 0.8% y/y decline.
Some sectors are doing better than others: The stronger IP index was mainly driven by manufacturing recovering to 2.0% YoY (from -1.6% YoY in December). Metallurgy and forestry performed well, while construction materials saw continued contraction.
Manufacturing continued showing stable growth, posting 2% year-on-year growth in January. In unadjusted m/m terms the indicator dropped by 35%, due to the large number of holidays in the reporting month. Manufacturing in 2016 overall posted 0.5% y/y (revised from 0.1% previously) compared with 1.3% y/y decline in 2015 (revised from 5.4% drop in previous reports).
Extraction growth remained stable at 3.3% y/y in January, posting 2.7% increase for 2016 overall versus 0.7% in 2015 (2.5% increase and 0.3% decline in previous estimates, respectively).
Note Uralsib Capital analysts, "these differences reflect the ongoing structural changes in Russia's economy , caused by its gradual adaption to shocks in late 2014."
Technical factors were at play too, with two additional working days
27 RUSSIA Country Report February 2017 www.intellinews.com