Page 45 - RPTRusFeb17

Import growth accelerated from 5.6% y/y in 3Q16 to 8.5% y/y in 4Q16; and Alfa Bank forecasts it at 10% y/y for 2017.
Non-oil exports dropped 10% y/y in 2016, including a 2.4% y/y fall in 4Q16.
Combined, this led to a current account surplus of only $7.8 bn in 4Q16
versus the $11bn Alfa had expected on the back of recovering oil prices; the current account surplus reached only $22.2bn in 2016 versus the $26.7bn expected.
5.2.3 Capital flight dynamics
Capital flight finally reversed in January with the first positive inflows of $2.4bn for well over a year. Capital flight has been falling steadily from a peak of c.$150bn in 2014 as Russian companies deleverage and pay down international debt. That process more or less came to an end in 2016. The capital flows reserves partly on new money arriving in Russia thanks to a boom in bond and equity investment that got under way in 2016.
This year the outlook is for capital flows to remain positive, depending on oil prices and also a continued recovery in investment interest in Russia’s capital markets.
45 RUSSIA Country Report February 2017 www.intellinews.com